Here are hourly charts of the June S&P futures and the Spiders. I last commented on these markets here.
The Fed took no action this afternoon and the markets raced upwards in reponse. I think this is a bullish development because only a strong, underlying technical condition would push the stock market up like this without some obvious postitive development as an excuse.
I have have highlighted the previous hour's trading activity in green. It is a wide range up bar which represents a decisive move upward out of the past two week's trading range. I think we shall see a close above the high of this range today and I think this will mean that new bull market highs lie dead ahead.
5 comments:
so you no longer expect a leg down to 135 on SPY? thanks
Seems like all bets are off then for SP1350?
How does that square with your point and figure projections re strength of consolidation at resistance?
looks like a short squeeze. If you take the top from feb 22 to march 14 and take that same line to todays top it projects a perfect a-b-c pattern to the exact measure move to 1347 on the downside which you had before.
also, all major corrections move in elliot wave theory, this looks to be a big b wave. Look at March '04 daily charts. At current Nas, russell have not come close the a proper correction and the dow and s&p look like fake outs. I personally have never seen a simple .618 correction but I have only been trading for 4 years. Now everyone is bullish, let's see. What are your thoughts?
Can you say "whipsaw". This is the genius of the market. This movement is creating capitulation of any shorts, the market will shake them out, and will then move down. Expect more volatility here. Carl, I feel like you are jumping the train here while many of the technicals and data still support a third leg down here. The problem is timing. People are shorting too soon, and not waiting for the market to come to them.
Lot's of data here to support some further price correction from my research, and I fell that it is somewhat negative for the market that the Fed may have to cut interest rates when the markets are still flush with liquidity. That is much more "bearish" to me then if they had stayed hawkish on inflation, they are really worried here, and that is no fuel to further a rally imo. other than rampant speculation momentum on the long side now.
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