Here are hourly charts of the June S&P futures, the Spiders, and the QQQQ's. I last commented on these markets here.
In this morning's guesstimate I said that that response to the employment number would carry the futures to 1430 and the Spiders to 142.90. Instead, long time frame sellers came in right after the pit open and the wide range down bar at the open tells me that sustained down move has begun. If I am right then yesterday's high points will prove to be resistance today.
I have changed my minde about the pattern the market is likely to follow over the next 10 days or so. I now think that the rally from Monday's low was the completed second, upward phase of a three phase correction which began from the February 22 high. I think that the third and final, downward phase is now underway. This means that the futures are on the way to 1360, the Spiders to 135.00 and the Q's to 39.50 with the usual rallies to lower tops along the way.
15 comments:
Carl,
Appreciate all your work. I'm not saying it can't happen anything is possible, but it seems everyone is expecting a move to 1360 by the end of the month. Option players, technical analysts, and most bloggers. Can everyone be right this time? I think next week will take most people by surprise.
Carl, Thank you for this blog and the work you do. I cannot tell you how much I have learned from reading your posts. Thank you again for your exceptional work.
Best regards.
I'm with ya Carl. I have similar predictions and thoughts. I'm heavily short right now and today was nerve racking.
how can one poster say we are expecting a drop to 1360 next week I am not all people but I am expecting sideways and then a push for 1420-1425 then a drop back to S&P 1380 thereabouts probably the next week after that.
Carl, quick question, because you state in your last post that you have changed your mind, but from what I can tell, the third phase is in line with your past predictions. I think you are still congruent and spot on and that there is not a change in your insights.
I enjoy your work, Carl. It looks like the experts believe the market will be heading up next week--which is why, as a contrarian, I think you're right about the next leg down. The most read story on Marketwatch.com leads off with this: "U.S. stocks are set to extend their rebound from the global sell-off next week on a series of economic reports expected to show steady growth and little inflation, as well as on positive financial updates from companies such as Texas Instruments Inc. and broker Goldman Sachs Group, strategists said."
The Q's will approach the bottom of the gap at 44.50 sometime this week. Unless the vast majority is right this time and we go back to 42.00. Can the majority be right sure it happens, but everyone thinks at a minimum we retest the recent lows. My opinion is not this month.
What experts expect the markets to be up? Marketwatch article? LOL. Look at options data, market technicians, bloggers, sentiment, and yourself. The vast majority have the markets declining. Can the majority be right? Yes, anything can happen we can plummet next week, but if we do the vast majority will be right this time.
He said in an earlier post:
"Finally, we have the state of market sentiment. I think the media are doing their best to encourage bearish sentiment (as is the market's action itself !!) but I do not think the level of short term bearish sentiment is yet at the point where it can support a move to new bull market highs."
From this, I guess, you think that a new bull market top will not be seen in the near future. Hence, the dome house formation ( the major one ) is invalidated now ? Please shed some insight, thanks for the great work
Actually, the majority can be right as well as wrong, so even if everyone was bearish, the market could still go down, short-term. Over the long-term, I don't think it would be wise to assume the majority will be right.
In Elliott Wave terms, the majority is right in wave 3s and in C waves of zigzags. Being a contrarian in those situations usually will not pay.
Please show me one elliot wave technician who captures 3 waves or even any zig zags with any consistency, you can't because if there was one he sure wouldn't share his ideas with anyone because he is making money. If you see it in a public forum most likely that person is not making any money trading. That person could make money investing but that is two different animals. I say we are either flat on the week or up. not down like everyone is calling for.
The market has not finished going up...all of you will be wrong
My crystal ball is usually correct. What it does not tell me about timing.
The market for a number of reasons will go down 10%+ before the year is out.
I do appreciate Carl who is willing to be specific about their forecast and publish it, right or wrong. Remember in the market you only have to be right about 55% of the time. Not all the time.
are you going to chance this view or still stick with it , above, a down?tks
Dear Carl, are you stick with your view above or obvius you will change it, seeing this strong market...or your feeling is for long haul/
Post a Comment