Thursday, February 01, 2007

Bull Market Boxes

Here are two weekly bar charts of the cash S&P 500 index. The first one is highly condensed and covers the entire bull market from its beginning at the 2002 low point. The second one is a closer look at the price action over the past two years. I last commented on these charts here.

On each chart I have drawn the 185 point boxes that I believe are controlling the swings within this bull market. I want to bring your attention to the top chart. If you look closely you will see that last week's break "tested" the 1/2 division point of the current box and this week's action shows acceleration above that line to new bull market highs. I think this means that a move to the top of the current box near 1512 is underway. I think that level will be reached sometime during the next two months.


Anonymous said... you have any updates with charts for CME

Anonymous said...

interesting thought regarding the next couple years . i tend to agree , yet im also a bit bearish
at this present time frame .
there is several bottom to bottom
to top as well as bottom to bottom
to top and even a larger bottom
to bottom to top to top counts that all converge right now .
so this next week should be very telling of what is coming next .
for me it is the spx cash index failing to get above 1455 ,
the break of 1441 is bullish
yet a break back below it right now into this time frame is also
telling .
we'll see soon enough as next week
should be a revesal down if all of this is tracing out .

Anonymous said...

We shd see a pull-back here to about 1400 before the push anove 1500 continues. Wouldn't this scenario also fit in with your domed house theory?


-Jeff K.

Anonymous said...

Carl, wondering why you don't have 196 as your basic box unit for S&P500 cash. If you take the 2000 high and subtract the 2002 low it's 784, and divide that by 4, you get a unit of 196........ why do you have 185.65?