Friday, February 02, 2007

Guesstimates on February 2, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - March S&P Futures: I expect the Spiders to stall briefly near 145.00. Support is at 144.00. The futures have nearly reached the 1455-58 range and will probably react 10 points or so before resuming the rally.

QQQQ: The Q’s should rally up to 47-48.

TLT - March Bonds: TLT should find support near 86.50. I expect the market to start a trading range in this vicinity which should be followed a rally to 94-95. The bonds should find support near 109-24 and then rally to 111-00. After that the market will probably drop to 108-28. I think a basing process has begun that will be followed by a move above the 115 level.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes will probably drop to 106-12, rally to 107-08 and then drop again to 105-24. I think the market has begun a basing process. After it is complete I expect a move to above the 110 level.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro rally should stop near resistance at 130.50 and then begin a drop to support near 126.90.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold support near 119.80 and then rally to 123.20. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 in 2007.

OIH - USO - March Crude: Upside target for OIH is 140. Upside target for USO is 49 and this was hit yesterday. After a reaction USO should move up to 51. Crude should hold below 58.50 and then drop to 54.00 or so. I think the market is likely to rally to 60.00 before resuming its bear market.

GLD - April Gold: GLD is headed for the 67-69 range before the bear market resumes. Switching to the April contract in gold. I expect April gold to rally to 675-690 and then resume its bear market.

March Silver: I think silver is on its way up to 1395. From there the bear market should resume.

Google: A move up to 564 is underway. Support is at 477.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Could you clarify the last two sentences of your March Crude guesstimate. Are you saying 58.50 will hold, then drop to 54.00, then rally to 60.00 before resuming the bear market?

Mike Roznowski said...

Carl,

why do you think Gold will resume a bear market, it has been one of the best performing assets over the last 5 years.

It would seem it is in a Secular Bull, why do you disagree?

Anonymous said...

I noticed GLD is below 64 on higher than average volume. Still looking for a move up to 67-69?