Thursday, February 01, 2007

Guesstimates on February 1, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - March S&P Futures: I expect the Spiders to rally to 145.00. The futures should move up to 1455-58.

QQQQ: The Q’s should rally up to 47-48.

TLT - March Bonds: TLT should find support near 86.50. I expect the market to start a trading range in this vicinity which should be followed a rally to 94-95. The bonds should rally to 110-16 or so and then drop to 108-28. I think a basing process has begun that will be followed by a move above the 115 level.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes should hold resistance near 106-28 and then drop to 105-24. I think the market has begun a basing process. After it is complete I expect a move to above the 110 level.

Euro-US Dollar
: The euro is should stop is rally near resistance at 130.50 and then begin a drop to support near 126.90.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold support near 119.80 and then rally to 123.20. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 in 2007.

OIH - USO - March Crude
: Upside target for OIH is 140. Upside target for USO is 49. Crude rallied above the 57.50 target but should hold below 58.50 and then drop to 54.00 or so. I think the market is likely to rally to 60.00 before resuming its bear market.

GLD - April Gold: GLD is headed for the 67-69 range before the bear market resumes. I expect April gold to rally to 675-690 and then resume its bear market.

March Silver: I think silver is on its way up to 1395. From there the bear market should resume.

Google: A move up to 564 is underway. Support is at 485.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl:

On OIL, do you expect it to drop to $54 before the rally to $60?


Aurelien said...

Any idea how long it will take for google to move up now that its earnings weren't recieved so well by the market? I see a good base at 485, but will we have to wait for next quarter in order to see 564?

Anonymous said...

i continue to think that the qqqq is being held hostage to AAPL and GOOG... downside moment of truth levels are 81.38 and 479.50 respectively. if those levels are hit and hold, i believethe qqqq will play catch up.

Anonymous said...

Any further thoughts on the QQQQ, as they are notably lagging? (Of course, I'm sure they'll rally as soon as I click submit).

Anonymous said...

there is a flip side to my previous post.. as bull markets reach their tops, certain segments of the market top todays highs, the $NDX completed a pattern that suggests that at least for that index, price is about to return to the january lows.does your work allow for such a divergence,where at best the $NDX double tops while the snp and dow make their final tops?