Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Guesstimates on February 6, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - March S&P Futures: I now think the Spiders are about to move decisively above the 145.00 level to the next resistance which stands near 146.00. The futures should rally to 1465-67 before stalling once more.

QQQQ: The Q’s should rally up to 47-48.

TLT - March Bonds: TLT should find support near 86.50. I expect the market to start a trading range in this vicinity which should be followed a rally to 94-95. The bonds should find support near 109-24 and then rally to 111-00. After that the market will probably drop to 108-28. I think a basing process has begun that will be followed by a move above the 115 level.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes will probably drop to 106-12, rally to 107-08 and then drop again to 105-24. I think the market has begun a basing process. After it is complete I expect a move to above the 110 level.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro rally should hold resistance at 130.50 and then begin a drop to support near 126.90.

: The yen should hold support near 119.80 and then rally to 123.20. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 in 2007.

OIH - USO - March Crude: Upside target for OIH at 140 was nearly hit yesterday while USO stopped a tad shy of the 50 level. Crude has near reached 60.00 this morning. I think these markets are about to start downward in a move that should carry OIH to 131, USO to 45 and crude to 54.00.

GLD - April Gold: GLD is headed for the 67-69 range before the bear market resumes. Switching to the April contract in gold. I expect April gold to rally to 675-690 and then resume its bear market.

March Silver: I think silver is on its way up to 1395. From there the bear market should resume.

Google: A move up to 564 is underway. Support at 477 was broken yesterday but I expect the market to halt in the 465-68 range and then resume its up move.


Anonymous said...

why do you 'think' this?

Y'day you were expecting a drop of ten points, now you are calling for a rally! Some kind of reasoning behind your 'thinking' would be appreciated.

- Ken

Anonymous said...

Would you elaborate on your thinking regarding the SPY guesstimate today. I know you use the 5 DMA of the advancing issues as one inicator, which is currently well into overbought territory.

Anonymous said...

When you expect the Q's to rally up to 47-48, is that a long term, year end view, or in the next few weeks?


Anonymous said...

I am believe that 36 in few weeks.This night Asia can CRASH.

Anonymous said...

Gold and oil have been higly correlated. Are you forecasting a divergence, with the Gold ralley continuing longer than this oil bounce?