Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Guesstimates on February 13, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - March S&P Futures: I think the Spiders are headed down to 142.70 and the S&P’s down to 1432. From those levels I shall look for a rally to new bull market highs. Meantime resistance in the Spiders is at 144.10 and in the S&P’s resistance is at 1446.

QQQQ: I expect the Q’s to hold support near 43.60 and then resume their rally into the 47-48 range.

TLT - March Bonds: TLT should drop to 86.00. The market has begun a trading range which should be followed a rally to 94-95. The bonds should drop to 108-28. I think a basing process has begun that will be followed by a move above the 115 level.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes will drop to 105-24. I think the market has begun a basing process. After it is complete I expect a move to above the 110 level.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro should hold resistance at 130.50 and has begun a drop to support near 126.90.

Dollar-Yen: The yen should rally to 123.20. Support remains at 119.80. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 in 2007.

OIH - USO - March Crude
: Upside target for OIH at 140 was hit and the next swing should carry the market to 131. USO hit the 50 level and now should drop to 45. Crude has reached 60.00 and is about to drop to 54.00.

GLD - April Gold: GLD is headed for the 67-69 range before the bear market resumes. I expect April gold to rally to 675-690 and then resume its bear market.

March Silver: I think silver will move higher to 1430. From there the bear market should resume.

Google: Google has dropped nearly to its last low at 454 but I think this reaction is over and that the next big move will be upward to 564.

3 comments:

halcyon said...

Carl,

The current issue of Business Week may rival the famous 'Death of Equities' article with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight a decade from now; http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_08/b4022001.htm Your take on this?

Anonymous said...

Wow, i agree, that's scary especially when you consider that the rate ($TNX) chart is poised near the long term downtrend line.

"Most remarkably, the craziness isn't likely to stop anytime soon. The low cost of capital is probably going to last "five to seven years," says Samuel Zell, ... James W. Paulsen ... sees an even longer horizon: "This could be a prolonged cycle where the cost of capital is low [for] 10 or 20 years."

Such sweeping statements sound like the 'Death of Equities' cover.

dt

halcyon said...

dt,

I would agree. Quite extraordinary given that the peak in rates was back in 1981. I remember the long bond (30 year) with a 14% handle and sentiment a mirror image of what one sees now. History rhymes, same as it ever was.