Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Guesstimates on February 27, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - March S&P Futures: The last two reactions in the S&P’s were 23 and 25 points. On that basis I expect this morning’s break to end in the S&P’s near 1440 and in the Spiders near 144.00. The next step upward will carry the Spiders to147.00 and the S&P’s to 1470.

QQQQ: I expect to find support near 44.40 and then to rally to 46.40 and later into the 47-48 range.

TLT - March Bonds: The lows made on January 26 will hold. TLT is now headed up into the 94-95 range. The bonds are headed for 120. The bonds have reached the short term upside target at 112-16 and are likely to stall for a day or so before heading higher.

March 10 Year Notes: I now believe the notes made their low on January 26 and are now headed for 111. The market has reached its short term upside target at 108-08 and will probably stall for a day or two before heading higher.

Euro-US Dollar
: The euro has developed more strength than I expected yesterday but the 132.60 level is strong resistance. From there I expect another downleg to start.

Dollar-Yen: Support is 118.60 and the next upside target is 123.60. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 in 2007.

OIH - USO - April Crude: OIH should soon drop to 129-130. USO should drop to 45. Resistance in April crude is at 62.50 and from there the market should drop to 55.00.

GLD - April Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold are very near important tops. An extended drop will start soon.

March Silver: Silver now has resistance at 1475. Its bear market will resume soon.

Google: Google is headed upward to 564.


Anonymous said...

Maybe this obvious at this point, but I have to ask: Is this a big enough break for you to label Feb 20 as Point #21, and that, whenever we hit bottom now, we're near Point #22?

Anonymous said...


At what SPX level does your analsis call for a trend reversal? Looking back to July 2006 when the SPX was bottom near 1238, the SPX has not seen five (5) consecutive down days like we just witnessed.

Is today's large down bar the start of something much larger to the downside? Or is it merely the exhaustion of the current down move?

Thanks in advance,