Thursday, March 04, 2010

The employment number

Tomorrow at 8:30 am New York time the February employment numbers will be released. Assuming the market closes near 1119 or higher today I plan to stay long overnight and either hold through the number or try to trade around it. So I expect to post some trading activity near 8:30 am even though pit trading doesn't open until 9:30.

Yesterday afternoon I closed my long position because the drop from the 1125 high followed what appeared to be a terminal thrust (false breakout) which often precedes a high volume sell off. However, overnight the ES held support at 1113 and this morning rallied to 1123. This tells me that the market is simply trading in a small, 11 point box from 1114 to 1125. Since the up trend from last week's low at 1084 is still intact on my charts I have to assume that the market will leave this box on the upside in the next day or so and establish a new box 1125-1136.


khoekz said...

Thanks for the update on your thoughts, Carl.

I have been debating about going long all afternoon, but I am not sure my trigger finger is itchy enough.

This market feels a bit weak, and I really don't like being long (or short) before an anticipated number.

With that said, I have joined you in your last few plays and have made some good $ over the last couple weeks with your calls.

I'm debating it.

Thanks again

waw4 said...

Are you working with any Top-to-Top counts currently? If so, would you point them out?

Win said...

If you draw a descending trend line from the 2007 highs to the January high, you will see that we are up against that line again now. IMHO, this was a natural place for resistance. If we clear this, we should be off toward 1150 or so.

roguewave said...'s high close bar shares similar conditions with 2/8 low close bar...volume is reduced and we have divergence in acceleration..the difference is that this acceleration divergence is setup with the trend vs countertrend and is not as reliable..this is the first time since the Feb lo that similar conditions present themselves...tight price is being quided by next week and next month's tight trendline values coming in at 1123 and 1114

Joe said...

The question now is if we stop at 1130 (mid-box) for a 20 points break or at 1150 (top of box). This is the only question right now IMO. There can be no doubt about continued bullishness, only about when the bears have their next temporary capitulation.


waw4 said...

So Carl,
Would you say we are unlikely to have any significant break in the market until the ADV/DECL line trend breaks down?

catherine said...

Carl - you are right. I was wrong.
Kudus to you.