Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time
S&P ETF is up 14th day in a row. S&P is up 7pts today. If this is contrarian trading then what is trend following?
look at FTSE
Forewick:The most contrarian aspect of my market activity is that I actually make money, year in and year out.
haha. I love when Carl pokes his head into the comments. He doesn't waste words.my favorite one "For a Rank Amateur you are a pretty Arrogant Fellow"Nick
Carl:Hmm, making money "year in and year out" sounds like a trend to me!FH
This is what the contrrians are saying:http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ben-bernanke-has-become-pied-piper-momoism?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
Small caps, nasdaq and transports are well above the late dec/early jan high. Its hard to imagine they won't pull back to those levels before another move higher. getting long snps here for the final squeeze is the hardest thing to do in trading. its also the most profitable when you get it right. when you get it wrong you ask yourself why you didn't fade it. and when you do nothing you can sit back and be critical of others :)
after more then one year that i follow this blog i understand how much this man understood about the market and i always remember W.Buffet words "The best asset is your own self. You can become to an enormous degree the person you want to be."I think that Carl is became this kind of person.Cya
S&P may reach 1175 or even 1180 this week. However, it's not worth it to count on it (risk/reward ratio is too high).
CarlMay I respond to the fellow who claims that your trading is no more than trend trading."If you think this is trend trading you should read Carl's book."In early February and again in late February when the markets appeared to be poised for a major pull back and with many of the blogs, pundits and talking heads talking doom and gloom Carl's predictions were strongly bullish. He repeated "I think that we should reach 1200 in the next few months" over and over. (Check his posts.)The markets looked bleak. At one stage a poster even implied Carl was drinking kool-aid. And it was clear that many readers thought he was wrong.But he stuck to his contrarian guns and the recent moves in the market have proved his calls remarkably accurate. In reality a contrarian is someone who goes against the prevailing view; a good contrarian is someone who goes against the prevailing views and is correct.I guess that makes Carl a good contrarian.
Folks,Carl is a bullish trader.I've been following Carl's blog for 2 years and from 2007 to early 2009 he attempted to catch the bottom many times only to get his A$$ handed to him. If you don't believe me, look through his past journals.He was calling for a move to 1,200 on every dip.Now things have turned around. Rest assure if S&P pull back to 666 again, his projections of 1,200 won't change.
Eric H:Yes, I had a lot of trouble during 2008. Sad to say, I only made a profit of 86% that year on my bullish trades.Get lost.
Carl, I think the root of some of these comments you get is envy.
What is with these folks like EricH? They just don't like to see success in others, so they have to find something to criticize? Carl, I hope the "get lost" implies that this guy's posts will no longer be seen on your blog!
My opinion:I have been checking Carl and his have been bullish a time before teh crash. Well what is the problem?, markets are going up 8 more times than going down. Is the right bet. He manages to end the year making money, cause one thing is opinion or analisis and other trading.I didnt read yet the carl´s book. I will do. But I arrived to the conclusion Im very contrarian. The sentiment is a bit subjective and need to be trained. In January one day I read a few blogs and all people was saying we were going up, of course the market fell. In february, people was bearish, I turned bullish on 8th feb.And these days, if you read the blgos and everybody u would see people with doubts, fears, saying was a potential doble top, well, that give probabilities to continue up. What im trying to say with this last is that Carl in this going up venture is very contrarian If I compare to the crowds of bloggers. In my opinin, if the uptrend channel is not brokern, then we will see 1200 sooner than may as Carl say.
Eric H????????At worst we are weeks (more like days) away from 1200. At best we get to your 666 in months or years if ever.????????
Carl It is totally true that you were bullish all the way down - and all the way up - and yes you did make lots of money as well. But i didnt know why you felt the need to ask for donations - instead of to charity or take subcription and give them to charity like Marc Faber. You should be a multi millionarie my now - and if you are not, you presumably are not taking enough size on each winning position. I am not actually sure why you do this blog especially when some commentators seem to upset you so much. I for one wouldnt bother. All sort of comments are par for the course on the internet. It is that sort of medium.
@Catherine: I too don't know why Carl felt the need to ask for a donation. And frankly, it's not for me to worry -- he may have his reasons to do so. Perhaps it's how he gauges people's appreciation. Perhaps he is actually giving the donations to charity, we just don't know. I have no doubt that Carl is already a multi-millionaire given he's been trading for so long AND has such an excellent read on the market.I think apart from his posts that give market direction/insight with trendlines, MAs, AD lines and what have you, I think Carl is teaching us an even more difficult task -- that of trading AND making money EVEN if the market doesn't quite agree with your assessment in the short term. THAT is a lesson I am yet to even get started on as I find myself fumble much more often than I'd like.I just hope Carl wouldn't cease posting his incredible insight and trades. If ever he feels like getting away from jerks I hope he starts a closed/paid blog, am sure he'd get a LONG list of subscribers.Thank you and good luck!-PA
Catherine,I find your assumptions about Carl, his motives and his dissimilarity from you quite arrogant and annoying. People are different. Carl is a teacher. You are not.
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