Monday, March 15, 2010

Update

I just went long one unit because the market has been holding at the low of my range estimate of 1136-48. Yes, I know, I was looking for a break down into the 1120-30 range. BUT, the trend is up and the market has traded very quietly at the bottom of a low volume break from 1152. I just don't see much selling pressure and I don't want to be left behind by a rally just because a prediction of mine ("down to 1120-30") didn't work out.

12 comments:

Nick said...

Mr.Futia,
Perhaps people are holding for the possible ramp up from the FOMC Rate news tomorrow. We hit your 1136 level off by just half a point. Best of luck with your trade!
Cheers!,
Nick

Aarpenn said...

Carl,

I agree with you most of the time, and trade in the same direction as you most of the time. But today I am going in the other direction. Shorted a mini at 1144 and covered at 1136.75, and going short againa t 1140.25, with a stop at 1143, because I believe in your earlier analysis that we will go down to mid 1120's

Good luck

alexnewbee said...

rather shallow Nasdaq participation in this rally does not bother you?

George said...

I agree we are going to the 1120-1130 zone, but like Nick, I think ES will hit 1152 in regular trading hours tomorrow, before the break happens.

Thursday morning, I wrote that I anticipated whipsaw until Fed day.

Smarty Pants said...

I expect options to keep things flatish untill expiration

Kishore said...

alexnewbee said... "rather shallow Nasdaq participation in this rally does not bother you?"

Alex, Carl stays blissfully oblivious to a lot of the "noise" that bothers many of us. It appears that he knows the difference between what is important for the market movement and what is not. But then, no one is infallible! And I don't think Carl claims that either.

Tim Mack said...

Seems like GS and JPM agree (or at least their clients do) they were both size buyers at 1138-1139. Locals were short from selling to them but couldn’t push lower, a sign of strength.

Wags94596 said...

Experienced traders are well aware that most of an expiration's "unwinding" takes place on the WEDNESDAY before a Friday Expiration. As a result, what the market shows us in the way of price behavior on WEDNESDAY is most key!

ARJ said...

Mr. Tim Mack,

How can you tell it's GS & JPM buying? Say, I Have TOS, how can I see who have been buying or selling through the platform? Thx!

Teich said...

I noticed that the market internals degraded today -- despite a positive close, the number of NYSE adv-dec issues is at -472, implying that the market was held up today by large-cap issues.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$nyad

Teich said...

Forgot to say that George also noticed it independently:

http://whitemagicanditsexposure.blogspot.com/2010/03/negative-divergance-extends.html

Aarpenn said...

Carl,

You win again! Congratulations. I got stopped out. Good job