Monday, March 22, 2010

Going up

Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing day session e-mini trading. I think the next phase of the rally to 1200 and above has begun.

At its low this morning the market was at the bottom of its second, 9 point box down from the 1165 high. It also was finding support at 1148, the January 11 top. What followed was a fast rally (green arrow) back into Friday's trading range (blue dash oval). This is classic shakeout behavior and I think it marks this morning's low as an important one.

The ES has entered the second of a rising stack of 9 point boxes. I think we will see the market rally into the green oval near 1175 over the next few days. That level is at the confluence of the top of the third box and the upper trend channel line I have drawn on this chart. In the mean time I think support will be found near the low of the second box in the 1155-56 range.

3 comments:

dcatlowpj said...

Simply put, Carl, great commentary. Very consistent with your take on the ES trades.

Urban said...

Further to my prior question about the high degree of bullish sentiment as a possible source of concern to a contrarian:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sentiment-conditions-not-so-bullish-2010-03-22

To be clear, I don't doubt Carl. His calls are remarkable. I'm raising this as a question only.

Naso said...

why did you sell so fast?