Wednesday, March 24, 2010

sold long unit at 1166.50


Kevin said...

Guess if Carl sold his long unit after holding overnight, he must think a small pullback to the lower portion of daily stated range must be in order...

Joe said...

Hi Carl!

Following your blog in the past more than 3 years, I can say the following about your trading:

1. You are probably huge Winner in a Bull / strong Bull market.

2. You are doing fine in a sideways market.

3. You probably come out even, maybe a bit negative during strong Bear markets, but probably you lose much less than you win with your winning series, during good times. (Strong bear markets constitutes less than 25% of the time.)

The following major steps completed during your trading:

Step1: Opening a position, Pos1 at Point A.

Step2: Potentially opening a second position, Pos2, adding to the first position at Point B.

Step3: Closing position, Pos1 at point C.

Step4: Closing the remaining position Pos2 at Point D.

Sometimes your close Position 1, and Position 2 at the same time, so Point C and Point D might be the same.

Probably Many of your followers will be able to identify:

- Point A as position opening point.
- Point B as positon opening point.

- Point C as positin closing point and finally
- Point D as position closing point

But at the same time very few of your followers might be able to

- Hold Pos1 from Point A till Point B, as the strategy, you ar playing is Not theirs and they will not bear the stress that might be generated by the market betweeen Point A and Point B, that you are willing to endure with your confidence in that trade.

- Very few players will increase position at the same time as you do, as their conviction is not the same.
But at the same time this second position add greatly to your bottom line during long periods, and has a much higher probability of winning that your average trade win probability.

These attributes are clearly those of the pro - traders.

It is real fun to see you trading and your conviction sometimes proves real educational! Congrats to You!

Personally I never opened any position in the past 5 years in responce to any suggestion or
to follow any other trader.
I have my own refined trading style and strategies that I am very happy with, but no matter how profitable I am always looking for improvements.

Joe Papczun