Monday, March 29, 2010

Long second unit at 1168.25

21 comments:

PM said...

Hi Carl,

On 2/08/2010 12:43:00 PM I posted to you blog:

"Well, we could be a day early and we could see a confirmed buy signal today. For a confirmed buy signal today we would need to see a close above 1072.40, which just coincidentally happens to be yesterday's high."

Well, we did get that buy signal some one hundred points lower than where the market is today. Indeed, we've had some spectacular run and I don't think it's over quite yet. But, my model is now telling me that the market must close above 1194.60 on Wednesday April 7th to continue without interruption or we'll have a confirmed sell signal. There are no shades of grey here, it must or a sell signal will be triggered.

This is not to say the market has topped, but it does say that the rally will have lost enough momentum that it would be very likely that we would see some retracement before the rally resumes.

Thanks.

Kindest regards,

PM

roguewave said...

PM...was that republished past opportunity your only signal or was it only one of many many many both long and short?...If I am correct in my suspicions this one signal does not nearly represent all the failed signals which have not been "republished" Maybe I'm wrong.

PM said...

Dear roguewave,

Since June 10, 2008 when my model issued a sell signal at 1365.00 I have posted numerous buy and sell signals here on Carl's blog. He can easily correct me if I'm way off base, but my model has a success rate better than about 70% over the long haul, and possibly better than that.

Best regards,

PM

F&H Painting said...

If you are long 100% of the time, your success rate is beter than 70%. The market is up more than 70% of the time.

TMG2010 said...

PM, do you have a Blog site?

roguewave said...

PM..ok so my suspicions were correct..thank you........"different opinions with a "you-decide," shoulda, coulda, woulda, and "told-you-so" type reporting format. With so many opinions, one is bound to be right for recall. "-Russo

PM said...

Dear TMG2010,

No, I don't.

PM

PM said...

Dear roguewave,

There is no "woulda, shoulda," on the contrary, what I posted is very black and white, either the market fits the prerequisite or a sell signal is issued. I suggest you learn to read.

PM

TMG2010 said...

PM, Thanks for the reply! Would like to hear more of your input. Thx.

PM said...

Dear TMG2010,

Thank you, I appreciate that. I post only when a buy or sell signal is nearby. I leave the rest of the noise to the others to bicker about, hash, and rehash. My signals are strictly mathematical, cut and dried, there's nothing to debate and/or argue as others prefer to do.

Again, thank you.

PM

roguewave said...

PM...my understanding is fine...how is yours?...what you refered to was said not by me but by someone else..therefore the reference included along with suitable quotation marks. If the shoe fits wear it..if not ignore it.

Kishore said...

PM, as it is, no one should follow anyone else's signals. But what makes your signals even more meaningless, at least for me, is that they are baseless. No explanation is ever given, other than some sales talk about their being mathematical and about their hypothetical, unverfiable accuracy.

In fact, your signals, without even a reference to the time-frame used, are confusing, misguiding and are counter to the openess and spirit of Carl's blog.

Just wondering if anyone even cares for YOUR signals?

roguewave said...

PM..PS..in addition...you used the term "could" twice in your original blog quote but then today left it out and this does not even begin to cover the fact that we did not that day close as you had expressed so I have to wonder why you would believe I have issues with understanding. Fact is on the day of your blog post we did not close to create a buy as you remarked. Period!
How is that for understanding?

PM said...

Dear Kishore,

So what if you don't find my signal helpful? Who cares? They're not intended for you. You're opinion of yourself is somewhat inflated beyond standard normalcy. Frankly, I find your comments comical to think what I post to Carl is intended for you at all. Clearly you find my signals helpful, or you would not be upset that I haven't taught you how to crunch the numbers. Your thinly veiled tantrum is pathetic. Keep on posting if you wish, I'm going to enjoy my evening elsewhere.

Oh, and have a nice day. So long.

PM

PM said...

Dear roguewave,

As a courtesy to you, I will try to make my statement even more clear, and I'm sorry if it wasn't. So, let me try once more. I said, "the market must close above 1194.60 on Wednesday April 7th to continue without interruption or we'll have a confirmed sell signal."

This means that if we close at or above that price on that date, then the rally will continue from that date. If the market closes BELOW that price ON THAT DATE, then I will have a confirmed sell signal.

Now, kindly tell me what part of that statement is not clear? It's all or none, there is no maybe here. But if you're still not sure of what I'm say, then please let me know. Thanks in advance.

PM

Win said...

PM,
I appreciate your posts, as I think do others. I would appreciate it even more if you would start a blog to teach us your methods, as has Carl.

PM said...

Hi Win,

Thank you for your thoughtful and kind words, I appreciate them. Respectfully, I have no interest in starting a blog, nor do I really want to share the formulas I use to derive my signals. It has taken me years of hard work and I make my money trading these markets, I don't think giving it away would make sense to me, but I have no problem sharing the results of my model with others.

I do moderate a thread on a Website which is well visited and you, as well as others, are certainly welcome to visit. With Carl's permission, I will post the link here below:

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=57934

You may need to register in order to post there, but I'm only providing this information since you ask, I do not want to appear to spam here.

At that thread I do explain some of the mechanisms of my model. Please let me know if you do visit the thread.

Thanks.

PM

curt said...

kishore...you continue to "drop in" with so called words of wisdom, yet I have never once seen anything you have to offer make any sense at all. Your calls of a great conspiracy are old and tired and a poor excuse for your apparent long losing streak.

TMG2010 said...

PM, Thanks for the link and for sharing. I have already checked the blog out. As a trader for 15 yrs., you take info. and do your own due diligence and make your own independent decisions. If you have to follow 1 person exclusively then you are doing yourself an injustice and are not ready to trade as your sole income. That comes with time and proven decision making... With that said, there are many out there that have a horrible track record. The last 2+ months following Carl, he has an extremely great track record. So that decision comes with monitoring the bloggers decision. My feeling is I follow many sites and use this info on the long and short to come to my OWN decisions on trading. ...Gone against Carl's call a few times and got burnt...Enough said.

PM said...

Dear TMG2010,

Everyone must do their own homework, you are exactly right!!!

PM

roguewave said...

PM...you have switched dates on us...no misunderstanding was mentioned regarding the recent sell...the 2x "could" remarks and the improper close refer to your prior buy signal which never occurred that day as remarked by you yourself. We did not close that day according to your remarks but you reposted the opportunity nevertheless.