Thursday, March 25, 2010

late update

Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing day session e-mini trading. The break I saw coming in my last post turned out to be bigger than I expected. I now think the market will drop to 1155-57 (red oval) before another rally can start. That target zone is the confluence of midpoint support (purple dotted line), the lower boundary of a rising trend channel, and also the level at which the current reaction would match the size of the last drop (purple boxes).

Once this break is complete I expect the market to take its next step up into the 1185-90 zone.


Kishore said...

Today, almost all the volume on ES was generated by very few ticks.

HFT computers did all the buying and HFT computers did all the selling.

Once they get going, the stupid HFT computers don't know when to stop.

What a day!

solrac said...

Are Cover Stories Effective Contrarian Indicators? (concerning individual corporations)

Link to free academic article:

thanks for the blog Mr. Futia

Wags94596 said...

With all due respect, my guess is that you have no idea as to what kind of HFT "algos" exist in the first place . . . the majority of which are engaged in some sort of ARBITRAGE.

Given the ARBITRAGE involved, HFT computers actually do "know" when to stop.

Nick said...

Thanks for taking time during the trading day to update your current market views.

I don't know enough about those HFT computers to agree or disagree with your claims. It just sounds a little far fetched, be it true or not, that they are the ones responsible for price movement. It sounds more like a fear tactic perpetuated to keep investors out of the market or to justify an unexpected change in short term market conditions.


Joe said...

I think a triangle wave 4 is building up. In SPX cash around 1162 there should be support for the C leg, to be followed by d and e. Apex around 1168 targeting around 1196 SPX cash in wave 5.

Ali said...

I think we get a bigger correction this time, i expect SP500 to get down to 1120 before going to 1200.

Kevin said...

Ali, How are arriving at that pivot point? If you are willing to share I would like to listen. :-) Thanks!