During the past month the e-minis have rallied 80 points. Yet the market has been very quiet during this rally. Volume has been moderate and pit session volatility has been low.
I find this remarkable market behavior. Today, for instance, the ES is trading at new bull market highs. Volume has been very moderate and the market has traded in a five point range over the past two and a half hours. One thing I have learned over the years is that short term tops of any importance generally occur when trading activity is relatively high and intraday volatility is relatively high. Advances generally end with a bang, not a whimper.
So I have to conclude that the 20-30 point reaction I have been looking for is not here yet. Instead I think the ES will reach 1175 before any significant break of more than 10 points develops.
I am revising today's range estimate to 1157-1170.