Monday, March 15, 2010

Guesstimates on March 15, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the June contract is 1136 - 1148. I think a drop into the 1120-30 zone is imminent. Looking further ahead, look for the ES to reach the 1200 level by the end of May.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

April Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00. Resistance is in the 81-83 range.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - May Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now 18.30.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

4 comments:

Win said...

Carl or any one else, I have a question:
The ES contract used to trade a couple points below the SPX but since we shifted to the June, it's been trading 4 or 5 points below. Any idea why this is the case?

Denali92 said...

In reply to comment above.

It is the cost of carry. It is always this way with financial futures.

Nick said...

Morning Mr.Futia,
I've been looking over some charts to find road signs of recent swings. This one caught my eye. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_3lAQS24Om7o/S55HD1z_GGI/AAAAAAAAACI/M9JZY0P9qs0/s1600-h/Picture+6.png
When the 5 ema crosses over the price line it appears to signal the start of a swing down and when price crosses over the 5 ema it signals a swing high. Signals tend to misfire in choppy consolidation.
Cheers!,
Nick

Win said...

Denali - Thanks, but my question is why is the cost of carry higher for the June contract than it was for the March contract?