Early this morning I thought that the market had shown its hand and was in the early stages of a 25 point break. But there was no follow through at all. Instead, after taking a peek below yesterday's low, it started to rally and made new highs for the day. Since then it has made two higher lows on my 5 minute bar chart and is holding above today's midpoint at 1138.00.
All in all it looks like the ES is preparing for a move to new rally highs (above 1143.25 in the June contract). I think we shall probably see a 1149 print. But I also think a 25 point break is imminent and is likely to start shortly after the market establishes this new rally high.