Thursday, March 11, 2010

Update

Early this morning I thought that the market had shown its hand and was in the early stages of a 25 point break. But there was no follow through at all. Instead, after taking a peek below yesterday's low, it started to rally and made new highs for the day. Since then it has made two higher lows on my 5 minute bar chart and is holding above today's midpoint at 1138.00.

All in all it looks like the ES is preparing for a move to new rally highs (above 1143.25 in the June contract). I think we shall probably see a 1149 print. But I also think a 25 point break is imminent and is likely to start shortly after the market establishes this new rally high.

19 comments:

Teich said...

I love it when Carl uses the two words "imminent" and "break" in the same sentence. He has often been right.

gomets1998 said...

Carl or anyone who wishes to answer me...is there a ticker symbol that can be bought and sold for going long and shorthing S&P futures (like Carl trades???)thanks...anyone???

From a previous post and I was interested as well.

Nick said...

Gomets,
UPRO is the closest thing I can think of. It follows the $SPXU which moves in the same direction as the ES. If UPRO is too leveraged for your liking there is also SSO (X2) and SPY.
Nick

Harsh Nahar said...

ES is futures ticker. Then month code.

You can replicate his trades on ETF through SPY

Teich said...

ESM0 1149 is also the target of the break in today intraday ascending triangle.

gomets1998 said...

Thanks for your help

Much appreciated.

Whats the advantage of ES-minis vs SPY?

pimaCanyon said...

ETF's to go long or short SPX:

SPY - can go long or short, 1X index
SSO - 2X long SPX
SDS - 2X short SPX

UPRO - 3X long SPX
SPXU - 3X short SPX

I have had trouble borrowing shares to short SSO or SDS, but you can accomplish the same thing by just using the opposite ETF. Note that if you hold these long term and market goes sideways, the ETF may actually lose value (which was my reason for shorting them).

I have traded both SSO and SDS. Haven't traded the triples.

But why not just trade the futures?

dcatlowpj said...

There are also Long and Short symbols for the S&P:

SSO
SDS

George said...

What's missing?:In the last few days, no financial website has bannered the fact that equity markets have been closing at new yearly and recovery highs. Excitement is totally subdued. This is one more sign that mass psychology is still relatively fearful of the market. You know what that implies.

gomets1998 said...

I have a fidelity account and they do not have futures :(

Wags94596 said...

Looks like we are within "spitting" distance of the C=A measured-move target at 1154 SPX.

1044.50 + 68 = 1112.50

1086.02 (Feb. 25th low) + 68 = 1154

RBharol said...

I am Carl's Fan.
He is not just plain bullish. He correctly calls pullbacks as well.

Jim said...

Gomets, futures are inherently leveraged (roughly 10x), highly liquid, and trade nearly round the clock. ETFs come in 1, 2, and 3x levered flavors, trade during normal hours, and are mostly very liquid as well.

In my view futures are drastically preferable to ETFs because of the extended hours and extraordinary liquidity/low spreads. Tracking ETFs with daily resets, particularly levered ETFs, are also prone to value erosion - that is, over long periods of time the ETF price can underperform the underlying index.

You should make sure you understand levered ETFs and futures before you choose to trade either. You can get badly hurt if you trade levered instruments without understanding their characteristics. You can even make a correct bet on the direction of the market, and yet lose money anyway.

janet said...

test

janet said...

I tried to post earlier and the blog would not take my password. Anyway I wanted to say thanks to all who tried to answer my question. Anyway I am familiar with sso and sds and do play them but what I wanted to know is if there is other ticker symbols for going long and shorting the e minis contracts that Carl trades. Trading future e minis contracts is comlicated?? Anyone??TIA

Market Karma said...

Agreed CF.. and now I see the same conditions for an imminent break in multiple asset classes. MK

Win said...

Carl,
Not one single blogger (besides you) is bearish. Every single blogger -- including TIM KNIGHT -- is bullish! This is not good for the bulls. I am short QQQQs for at least a pullback.

I see it as a low risk-reward trade. This is just a ST trade while I wait for a pullback to get long. If we pull-back, I'll take some profits and run. If we don't we have to pull back some time soon -- 5 MA of TRIN and PC ratio haven't been giving this bearish a reading in a looong time.

Thanks for all you do. Good luck!

gomets1998 said...

where do you trade futures? not a brokerage account?

Kevin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.