Friday, March 12, 2010

Guesstimates on March 12, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the June contract is 1143 - 1156. I think a drop into the 1120-30 zone is imminent. Looking further ahead, look for the ES to reach the 1200 level by the end of May.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

April Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00. Resistance is in the 81-83 range.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - May Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now 18.30.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.


Bill said...

I can not agree more that a break seems imminent.

On the other hand the sell-off that started in January and went all the way into February is the deepest pullback since the March 09 lows. The closest resemblance to it is the July 09 lows and we saw the rally that was propelled thereafter. This rally may have legs and may go all the way to S&P 1200 non-stop. It's what I believe will happen, but if it does it wouldn't surprise me either.

egnard said...

If it's going to start dropping, I'd bet on Tuesday. Mondays have usually been up days during the past year.

Kevin said...


Looks like 1200 is possible by the end of April based on Fib extensions. Are u just playing it conservatively?

Joe said...

Hi Carl!

I truely think this was a real "High ball" to play the short side.

After a massive runup, and a moderate GAP UP, look for the stat in these situations.
I played with a massive NASDAQ100 ulta short by opening a few minutes before market open, after the retail sales Eco data.

Alerady out of the short (QID)

Later in the day we will see the potentials for the next week.

Joe Papczun