Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Guesstimates on March 2, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1113-1128. I expect the market to reach 1200 over the next three months.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

April Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00.

GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance is at 1120.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 17.00.

Google: The next significant move should take GOOG above 700.


Larry said...

Still puzzled about your direction for metals, especially since Gold is solidly above your resistance level. Comments?

Win said...


The Russell is currently two points away from making new highs for the year. I think it will do so today, but the way it breaks 648 will tell us more about what's to come. I am bullish.

waw4 said...

Thanks for your posts Carl.

Would your consider posting your price boxes for the other markets you post in your daily guestimates?

Urban said...

Great call Carl. You amaze.

Russ 2K at double top. DJT has two high wick reversal candles at its high as well. A pull back here seems probable but your calls have been spot on.

Wags94596 said...

Commoditiy stocks continue to soar, especially the COAL sector today ( ACI, ANR, BTU, CNX, CLF, and MEE ).

Carl, I've been a big supporter of yours over at Planet Yelnick as you know.

However, I am puzzled as to your prediction of Crude Oil to $50 given that such a call has been rather "stale" now for months and oil is now over $80.00 a barrel. It would also seem that such a prediction would be diametrically opposed to a stronger economic rebound and a move to 1200 in the SPX.

Any thoughts?

Kishore said...

Wave 3 rally from ES 1056 and finished at 1111, i.e. 55 points up.

Wave 5 rally started at 1084.

If wave 5 rise is as big as the wave 3 rise, it should carry ES to 1084+55=1139.

After that?

Then, it "should" be the big wave III down.

Early birds, i.e. andi and Jeff, where are you? No "seed" but a load of ....?? Please tell us.

PM said...


Gold has completed its retracement to its breakout point and is now on its way to 1400.


My best,


spycharter said...

SPY gaps up today. If the gap remains unfilled by the end of today then we could be setting ourself up for a gap down tomorrow. Still expect to see SPY 114.3 over the long term.

Wags94596 said...


Wave 5 should not equal Wave 3 in Elliott terms. You want to look for 5=1 (or a fib-ratio of Wave 1) which would target 112.50 SPX.

As you know, we traded as high as 1123.46 today.

A 5 that = 1.382 of Wave 1 would target 1135 SPX.