Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Guesstimates on May 11, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: I think that last week's low at 1056 ended the correction from 1216. Today's range estimate is 1135-60.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is starting to stabilize. The 131 level is resistance.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

June Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: Gold has nearly reached its all time high of 1227. The odds now are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400.

SLV - July Silver: I now think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 495-505 zone is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

10 comments:

John said...

Bear market action in the markets right now...don't get fooled by silly headlines in Barron's like: "Don't Let Europe's Problems Fool You. The Bull Market Will Regain His Footing."

That's a contrarian heading, IHO.

kcounty said...

carl just printed his 11th month in a row stating oil is going down. i have a few oil plays that have done well but are starting to slip.

really could use an update carl on your oil call to $50 or at least a review of your original anayliss on how you came to '$50'.

thanks for your time, it IS appreciated!!

boris said...

Dear Reader
The market seems to be on schedule to top 10:45 +- 10 min.

Most likely area 1157
Good Trading All

Elmo said...

Any1 inside the battle field now??? Vol seem thin on the ES... still waiting for a nice 1!!! coolz

Edwin said...

If I am right that Domed House is being built in the 60 minute chart, we are in a consolidation before breaking out to the north.

I still think that most posters here are doing too much THINKING and not enough LOOKING.

Ali said...

Carl what do you think about Bob Prechters bearish view?

Dont you think we will get 30-40% decline when we reach 1250-1300?

Bill said...

Roubini said this morning that the european rescue package will most likely work.

Now the only question is how much of a slowdown and how much impact are we going to see on the Q2 bottom line of companies. Not just because a slowdown in parts of Europe is pretty much a given, also because US multinationals with Operations in Europe are going to have lower profits as a result in US$ as a result of the Euro being worth less.

The bear market is out of the question, but we still could see a further correction as a result of the market adjusting to the new economy of a lower euro and lower growth in Europe.

Gooner70 said...

Edwin - With regard to your domed house pattern, are you refering to the 3 April highs as the 3 Peaks ? If so, is the separating line (Point 10) Thursday nights low ? -- or are you looking at a much shorter term set-up?

Edwin said...

Gooner70--much shorter time.

I have tried very hard to learn and apply Carl's tool.

The tools work for me. I use them to my advantage rather than fighting them and Carl.

Gooner70 said...

Edwin,, so 15 minute charts. Therefore I guess we're building the dome right now ????