Monday, May 17, 2010

Guesstimates on May 17, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: I think that last week's low at 1056 ended the correction from 1216. Today's range estimate is 1125-45.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is starting to stabilize. The 131 level is resistance. Support is at 122.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

June Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400.

SLV - July Silver: I now think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 495-505 zone is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


kcounty said...

you oil call to 50 is starting to appear which is weird given summer is almost here and the BP mess.

John said...

Bear market action in today's markets again...if they can't rally the market on a

Larry said...

eminis dropping like a stone. Must be a "supply shock". 1110 target getting oh so close.

Jens said...

Once again we are under your trade range Carl. The S&P is takin serious hits at the moment. We are definitely heading down under 1100.

Maybe today already?

Hades said...

Carl - Don't you feel that a consolidation at these levels and maybe a touching of the 200 day m avg will be better for a longer term bull run ??
And after todays 5% chinese plunge , isn't it time to revisit your chinese thesis ??

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
i made up an index of 23 oil stocks and the pattern looks like a valid mid section count . to add to this im looking at the xle and a possible 3 peaks domed house pattern , while this is a bit speculative ill admit . the past 6 months the xle went sideways which can be counted as points 3 4 5 6 7
point 7 being the recent highs .
what i have as point 8 has already broken below points 4 and 6 . which leaves me a bit mixed . the time count where E to J equals J to A is this week . a 50 percent retracement on the xle is 50 bucks which can be considered point 10
we are entering a bullish cycle at this juncture and typically markets that have been falling reverse to the upside and the ones that have been running higher reverse to the downside , this begins now yet does not turn up strongly untill early june .
the dollar index is approaching is year resistance in the 88.02-89.80
range .