Tuesday, May 04, 2010

Guesstimates on May 4, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Early this morning the ES gave back almost all of yesterday's rally. This weak action leads me to believe that the market will drop below last week's 1177 low, probably down into the 1162-68 zone. Today's range estimate is 1178 - 1192. Even so, I think a swing to 1270 will begin soon.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

June Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. Resistance is at 1187. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance is now 19.00.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway. It now looks like the drop from the temporary high at 630 will continued down to 505.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


extrader said...

i think the Bull market has been exhausted here and its time for a nice 10% haircut on the SPX... i would like to see this market go down to 1100... this would be very healthy overall!

Bill said...

S&P predicted this correction a month ago. They said the cash market will end at 1270 at the end of the year, so it'll be up from its current level. However a 15% drop was imminent followed by a few months of trading at the lower level. The bull market according to S&P will not resume until October.

Chad said...

extrader the april 23 venus/uranus/fib 11205 short term top was just tested and failed but this market has got some powerful interests who seem to want to prop it up on low volume days.

I am one of the few that short this market. I again went short yesterday when the dow was up 110 only to see it raise another 50 point hitting my sell stops.
I watch for the next two days to get short on thursday.

John said...

Blowing through support on the EUR/USD...the problem, for all markets, is the exposure to massive government debt all over the planet. If people lose confidence in banks in Eurozone, look out below all over the planet.

Market Karma said...

Carl,, for the 10y, what is the condition that would make you change your 4.5% target to a target below the current market? ie: south of 3.60%. -MK

curt said...

Carl has stated many times that low volatility does generally not equal a top...the last few days we have seen more volatility than we have seen in a good long time. To me this indicates a more significant move lower...as extrader has stated, this will be a healthy move.

Wags94596 said...

Commodity stocks getting crushed and have been for several days now, even last Thursday when the market surged. This was a tip-off to me that the market was "exhausting" itself of its BULL run.

Meanwhile, the amount of money going into Bull Sector Funds is running at a rate of 7.5 to 1 vs Bear Sector Funds. This is a key CONTRARIAN sentiment guage that is as "frothy" as ten years ago during the Dot-Com bust.

Time for a breather, folks!

Laurence said...

It's over, the bull market that is. Market getting slaughtered on no news!!

Me XMan said...

I think market will bounce from here at SPX 1175.

TAE said...

There is plenty of bad news out there: soverign debt crisis not devolving into liquidity / currency crisis based on a European political action (read improbable), environmental disaster x 2, terrorism and high risk of regulation regarding all of these things and more.

It bullish the market is not down more.

roguewave said...

I get a chuckle at all the news "reading". Why not read the chart?..we dtopped...broke support..then retest failed...classic chart stoof...what else do you want ...it is all on the chart?...First sign of weakness was way back mid April and we have made no progress since. A bool/bear is always caught at the top/bottom failing to read the obvious due to bias.