Tuesday, May 11, 2010


Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing day session e-mini trading. I have chopped off the bottom part of the chart so that the last two days of trading can more easily be seen.

The market has been stronger today than I initially anticipated. I was looking for a day session range of 25 points, but with a low at 1135. Instead the low was 1144 and a 25 point range from there would put the high at 1169, not far from where the market stands now.

The ES is trading in 18 point, short term boxes (blue rectangles). The high of the current box is at 1180. The April 28 low point, and the breakout point for the drop into the Black Thursday low was 1177. I think the ES will rally into the 1175-80 range and then drop to midpoint support which stands at 1153 (purple dotted line). From there the market should resume an up swing that will carry it to 1200 and above within the next couple of weeks.

I think the move up from the 1056 low will continue until the ES reaches 1300.


PM said...

Hi Carl,

A close today above 1162.70 will give me a confirmed buy signal.


Kindest regards,


Bill said...

Solid analysis from Carl.

The market should hit 1175 to 1180range and face reaction, although it may just be a 10 to 15 point reaction only.

The drop to 1053 that Carl mentions happened today with an hour before the markets closed and the markets have bounced back.

There's too many people out there doubting the rally for it to fail. This rally will at some point end, but it won't be right now when everybody is expecting it to fail. Too many doubters out there and healthy fear are good fuel for the bull market.

Rajeev Bharol said...

I disagree.
There are too many people believing that the markets can't go down and every dip will be bought. Even Perma bears are scared to short after taking a beating for so many months now.
That is bearish.

TMG2010 said...

I must have missed that sharp drop to 1053 this afternoon. :-)

Win said...

D'accord, m'sieur. Large caps will lead now.

maria said...

I saw your comment earlier today on Gold going to 1320, same target as the May 9th marketkarma blog. How are you two arriving at this target? Thanks!

Wags94596 said...


The reason why there is such a massive divergence amongst bloggers as to where this market is going is because the MAJORITY of these bloggers are NOT TRADERS and haven't been around for more than a few years . . . charting the market as a hobby.

These "youngsters" more often than not have very little market history under their belts, let alone actual TRADING history. I find that this is most prevalent amongst all of the Elliott Wave Blogs that litter the internet. Asking them about the Dot-Com Crash of 2000 or the Asian Currency Collapse of 1998, or the Desert Storm / Recession of 1990/1991 is like asking them to speak about the Crash of '87 or the Recession of '73/'74.

The reason that they are unable to reference these key periods in market history is because they weren't born yet!


E said...

With the benefit of hindsight, now that we have pb to 42, what are your thoughts on the 1107 gap? Do you see that getting filled before moving forward?

Thank you

Adsense said...

Carl i see you have adjusted your
thoughts on silver and gold.
im positioned bullish on silver
and while i may change my mind on gold im begining to think this is the early stage of a blow off
on the metals . i also still think
both stocks and the metals will rise together yet may from time to time diverge . the cycle high in august is what is most important to me and from there i have several bearish cycles point lower into march 2011 at the earliest
weather it becomes a choppy sideways stock market or a decline which retraces the bulk of the rally im now taking a more cautous stance as far as how much money i use to trade with . on a somewhat shorter term thought , the 1997 lows plus 12 yrs 3 months was the occt nov lows in 2009 . we now have the 1998 mini crash to contend with which i believe is near oct 2010 ( 1998 low plus 12 yrs 3 months ) technically 12 yrs 3 months to 12 yrs 8 months from the peak . so a series of lows should unfold beginining in oct 2010 which run into the nov 2012 elections .
ill let the bull run for now but my take is we have more suprise down days coming

tempo said...

The market wants evidence that the overnight interbank lending rate will decline. LIBOR-OIS rate was 385 in the 2008 crisis. The rate was 7 basis points in March and 19 now. Today the rate rose .01 so the large ECB program hasn't impacted the rate yet but it will according to euro experts. Banks are reluctant to lend to each other when then know they hold toxic assets. The ECB has to agree to buy all crap owned by the banks just like the FED for the rate to drop. Maybe the FED will buy the crap.

Tim Mack said...

George, the worst thing one could do is shadow, blindly, another traders position. You will be the hero when the trade goes well and you will blame the trader when it tanks.

Traders must take positions based on their own methods. It’s the only way one can ever achieve the confidence needed to trade consistently profitable. If you don’t realize that than trading markets, particularly futures, with the potential to not only blow out your account but lose your house is the wrong game for you.

Carl makes me think in a different perspective when I need it most. When he is looking long and I’m looking short it makes me revisit my analyses, not change it - just revisit it.
Its extremely helpful to me.

My trades are fully my responsibility and I fully accept the profits and losses for my actions……That’s the reason why I trade and its greatest benefit……

Tim Mack