Friday, May 07, 2010

Guesstimates on May 7, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: I estimate today's day session range will be 1108-1138. It will probably take a couple of days to restore stability, but I believe that the next big move will be upward to new bull market highs.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is approaching the 124-25 target zone and should soon start to stabilize.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

June Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The market moved well above 1187 resistance on yesterday's panic be I still think the longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance is now 19.00.

Google: The 495-505 zone is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


extrader said...


I haven't been around this game long enough to see a market move like this.... I know its not normal, but how can the SEC allow for such things to happen, you could have easily blew out an account yesterday... I know the markets are volatile, but doesnt that kind of volatility happen on thin volume? I was just surprised they can allow a roller coaster ride happen in 20min!

Would love to hear ur thoughts and opinion on yesterdays ride... very curious to hear a professionals explanation!


d said...

Buying Op?

Didn't you just lose 20 ES points?

As much as all the small scalping gains you made in the last few months.

No offense Carl, I like your blog but it went the opposite way from what you said. It was a buying opp but I doubt many stepped in not knowing why it was dropping

silverlining said...

I'll give my 2 cents-
The world economy is a firehose.
Bankers are at the faucet and the pumps.
If someone can get more out of the hose (derivatives, Alg trading, etc.)they will be put in charge of the faucet and pumps.
Sooner or later the hose develops a leak and the regulators come in with their duct tape.


Life is a risky venture. We have traded the risk of lions eating us or our subsistence farming not "subsisting" for the risk of the hose exploding.
Good news, if the hose explodes, there is absolutely nothing you can do about it(maybe store some canned goods). So worry about what you can control.
Carl is good at what he does. He usually makes money even when he is wrong on mkt direction (look back at Oct '08 trades). If you want to do what he does, then get a job doing it and learn. Don't disrespect him by thinking you can do it at home watching CNBC.
I agree with Carl's view of mkt direction, and think the odds favor it, but we are clearly in a time when the global system from the last 80 yrs is under duress.

extrader said...

I would be very cautious the next few days, because it is moving rapid pace and they will prolly blow out all the stops....

Elmo said...

Any1 trading with this type of roller coaster ride???

extrader said...

I think when the market is this volatile, u may want to have a wider stop because they will prolly hit u if its tight...

Elmo said...

any1 trading with tis type of roller coaster market?

Elmo said...

I need a superfast desktop to tarde tis type of condition... I'm using DTN IQ feed for my charting, and zen fire for my order... but my DTN is lagging terrible...

extrader said...

im sitting on the sidelines and just watching what a wild crazy ride it is!

pimaCanyon said...

"d", if you're going to take a jab at Carl, at least get your facts straight.

You wrote: "Didn't you just lose 20 ES points? As much as all the small scalping gains you made in the last few months."

A quick glance at Carl's monthly trading record shows that in March (April's results are not yet posted) he gained 67 ES points, more than 3 times the 19.25 points he lost yesterday. So to say he lost more in one trade than all the gains he made in the last few months is an extreme exaggeration, or let's call it like it is, an outright lie on your part.

Bill said...

Folks, this could be the beginning of one of the biggest bear markets in history.

There's talk that the european union may not make. This coming from Angela Merkel a couple of days ago. The euro as a currency may simply not make it either, because it does not allow individual countries to have their currency fluctuate according to their economic conditions.

These are not small changes in the world economy, specially when they are forced by the market.

This isn't about being a contrarian or not, this simply tells me that if you don't get the basic economics right you won't figure out the stock market.

The stock market today doesn't care if the economy created jobs in April or not, it cares that the economy may destroy millions of jobs worldwide in 6 months. The market is forward looking and too many people right now are not listening to what the market is telling us, i.e. the economic recovery is uncertain.

Elmo said...

Hate to sit there doing nothing... errrrrr!!!

Chad said...

i a small i is viewing this action as one of th greatest short term buying opportunities of all time. I HAVE BEEN BEARISH MOST OF MY LIFE.

Lots of fiat headed into the markets.

The trend Long,middle,short term is your friend. Go against it and the trend becomes your deadly enemy and you will not be trading for long.

pimaCanyon said...

Elmo, I know what you mean, I feel the same way! However, knowing when not to trade is probably more important than knowing when to trade.