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while carl got caught in the downdraft due to news of fitch downgrade of spain..and i admire his strict discipline of cutting predetermined losses..it seems to me the down side is limited to 1080 here..and carl has shown that in his chart..i sold into yesterday rally..now building longs into sell off here.first trading day of month /week has been bullish..expect 1120-30 by tuesday
andi said..., "expect 1120-30 by tuesday"Else, andi will pay for your losses, form his accumulated profits!?
Kishore.....wot profits?...Andi recall was the "dip buyer" last week...of course that was swept under the carpet once we crunched down...you are only as good your last call and only good calls are referred to....the rest forgotten...sam ol sam ol
kishore...based on your "reliable cyclic movement" perhaps you can enlighten us with some timing and targets
Capital preservation and money management name of the game.Live to trade another day!Happy Memorial Day All,GOD Bless all those who served and paid the ultimate price so the rest of us can enjoy freedom and liberty.
Maverick...how do you come upon 450 target on the S&P??? A total financial collapse?? I agree with the person that said yesterdays rally was dead cat bounce. We seem to be in the perfect storm right now....batten down the hatches. Thanks Carl for putting up with us.
curt, the bottom is not in yet.We should expect a retest of the low at 1037.The next dip down will be completion of Elliott wave 5 on hourly chart.We could also use 38.2% or 50% retracement of the entire move up from March 2009 as potential targets. Those are 1007 and 942 respectively.Another target is retest of the down trend line on weekly chart, at around 1000 or lower, depending on how long it takes to get there.I don't think that the market is in a hurry to go back into an up trend. But then, no one knows for sure. It is all guesswork.
A trading day before long weekend,was expected to be extremely volatile.1096.5 buying was marvelous but was great trade if were sold @1102+.as once before,I'm sad for Carl's lossespecially when we are so much benefited.Stay safe,sir!GN.
To Janet - Hi Janet. It was me who said it was a dead cat bounce. As regards my targets - I'm afraid I can't give details as to how they are derived as it is confidential.But believe me those targets are going to be hit and in some style.
Whatever, the market is BULLISH--It can come down to 1065 but we all will see 1120 -1130 in coming week.My every learning as Contrarian trader is frommy so respected teacher Dr.Carl Futia.How I can put my thanks in words,what I learnt from you.God bless you&your loved ones!
Maverick - - you cannot say with any certainty, based upon any model, or fib, or VSA, or Elliott wave theory or anything else, no matter the variables - - what a bottom number shall be within any timeframe. It is just not do-able. If it were, and you thought you had it nailed to a tee--you would be short a rather large position of contracts, sitting on a boat, without a computer in reach, drinking your favorite bottled water surrounded by pretty boys with white towels and lovely maidens in bikini's. All one can do is make edu-makated projections and day-trade these futures contracts...even swings will be TOO much for anyone, and certainly not a great play when we have such volatility in some months, "sell in May and go away" historical BS...it could just as well rose 10% this month, and there is no theory, no method, no matter how fancy one dresses it up, that can predict market direction or tops or bottoms...otherwise there would be no one here seeking the advice of a technologist. I say watch your price action and use your trigger fingers with tight stops and try to catch a scalp or two a week and then go have a beer or a glass of wine or Apple juice. One can say they have proprietary methods but they would be worthless the moment you went long or short on a swing towards some guesstimate bottom or top....there is no way, no how. And, I consider the above statements to be the most positive ones written this week in this forum. Be wary, quick to stop your losses and quick to recognize the daily trends and FISH for extremes and trade the meat of these swings...long or short. And maybe you can build an account.
Been a while since I posted but I noticed previous Carl doubters have been replaced by others.Carl may or may not be correct on his thinking that the SPX is heading to 1300 at this time.What I do know is that near the end of Feb when everyone was looking for much much lower numbers, Carl was the only guy I could find predicting 1200-1228....and the market proved him correct.I wonder if the big mouth doubter ever bought 5 of Carl's books as he promised? I never got one, and he seems to be gone, go figure!
What Carl had identified as a break out of 1090, turned out to be a fake out.Carl is never the issue. The market always is!Cult mentality is not conducive to successful trading or objective discussion.
dcatlowpj - actually I am 100% certain that the S&P is going to 450 - it is only the time frame I can't be certain, but based on an educated guess I am looking at around 8-9 months.And I am sorry, but as soon as I found out that Carl was bullish when the markets collapsed in 08 - I can't respect his theory as he is ALWAYS bullish and never changes even when markets are plummeting.
Maverick .. probably when you are 100% sure (LOL) you should sell the house, sell everything you have, sell kidney (just not two or you will not be able to trade) and after you sold all you have just short this market. Do not worry .. at 450 you will be billionaire and you will buy all those back. And Maverick ... just post your trades. The best would be if Carl is bullish you short if bearish you go long. And lets see how wrong Carl is and how good you are.
ES_F seems bearish now,last night 1087--1096. Can go to 1102 but bears are in control.I wont feed them.going short or Wait seems wise.I went through all Carl's blogs,found him saying that many times we will see touching1056 before stabalising.I'll personally feel confident to follow him because my learnings went in my favour from him.Thanks Carl,Live long and happy...We all need you!
5/28/10Goldman Sachs Target3months $1,160.006months$1,200.0012months$1,300.00ES_F can touch lows because of too much volatility but I'll go with Carl.Don't feed the bears.Thanks Carl,went through all your blogs again and again to find meaning of every word of yours.GREAT WORK!
There are only 2 things that are going to happen. Up or down.These numbers are for daily closes and trading. It helps daytraders as you know the short trend.The test of 1083.25 was expected as I mentioned it May 26. The key numbers are 1092 and 1105.50 on the daily close as these numbers are the 50 from 1147.25 and 1174.75respectively.Maverick number of 450 was also my number but that was to happen in 2009. It stopped at March 2009 at 665.75. My initial forecast on Jan 2010 was for the DX ( US index) to be at 77/78 by April 16, 2010 and then start to move up to 95 by April 2011- June 2011 and all crash including gold. Gold was to stop at 1182.40 come April 16 but made a new high.The pattern has not unfolded as the indices have crashed but DX and GC have held.So come August 10 we either see GC at 1350-1400 and ES at 1214/1223/1241/1265.50/1275/1300/1320...pick a number on ES.As the ES is above 1053, it will get to 1134-1140 range before it decides to go up or down. 1134 is the 50 from 1216.75-1036.75.The range of 1148-1126.25 is most important in deciding we go up or down.The pattern will be up to 1134 by June 4 then down to 1118/1120 area and close just below 1126.25. The next daily close above 1126.25 will take us to and past 1148 and then we test 1216.75.Aug 10 or before ( July 15) will bring the high. June 2011 is a low area.Gold will get to 800-640(by Jan or June 2011) after hitting 1350/1400 by Aug 10. Usually GC should be making a low into Aug."Its buy in May and go away." Just the opposite of the norm seasonal play.The DX should drop 7-10 cents to 80-77 area while GC, ES, YM, etc make the double top or new highs.Then the indices will crash maybe after while the DX goes to 95 by June 2011.After DX hits 95 in June 2011 or before, it will go to 41 by end of 2012 early 2013 and Gold, silver, indices will take off and so will the economy.TSE is going to 22-24,000, ES to 3000-3,400 and YM to 22-28,000 by 2014.Remeber the 'game makers' that control the game can only make money by taking the market up...more suckers this way...hundreds of millions and these people do not short.Check my previous posts on crisis and being a billionaire.Thats why Buffet is worth billions and Prechter is worth "Nothing.""Prechter does not even trade futures...this from his own mouth as he told one of the trading magazines...he's too busy running his business.That's why Naveedah and I and whoever is an optimist will have a chance to be a billionaire...we know the "bankers' control the game through debt...which will NEVER be paid off.
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