Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Update

Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing day session e-mini trading. Early this morning the market dropped a few points below the initial target zone (green oval) and then rallied about 18 points. The rally has not yet moved above the level of the last low at 1177 (green dotted line). Until it does I think there is a good chance that the market will move a little lower, down into the 1148-1152 zone (dash oval). This lower zone is just above 1148 support defined by the January 11 top and is at the revised lower channel line (blue dots).

In either case I think the all clear signal will be a rally above 1177. Once that happens the market will be on its way to 1270.

7 comments:

RajeevBharol said...

I love it when in Every post Carl says "market is/will be on its way to 1270."

:)

tempo said...

After the German elections this weekend, it will be dangerous to be short. Germany and France will take decisive action to crush the hedge funds shorting Greece Spain and Portgual bonds. CDS spreads will drop dramatically and the market will move much higher on the ES Sunday openning, probably above the 1177 level. Thank you Carl for the great blog.

kcounty said...

carl, it seems like you have been describing the market correctly, but your not trading accordingly. then again, you posted sometime ago you only print your 'safe' trades, which you havnt made in a few days, soooo...im guessing we go down!

thanks for you hard work!

Jack said...

Carl,

You're not afraid to make your predictions and I appreciate you taking that risk. No one is ever 100% right but you are pretty damn good with your analysis.

You've got the track record to prove it.

Let's see what happens

Thanks again,
Jack

Jeffrey said...

Carl,

This is the problem with continuing to be bullish when that is simply not the case currently. You keep looking for a turning point which eventually will come but fail to see the bigger picture. This correction is not likely to end right now. It is likely to rally in the near term but for a limited time and not motre than 1-3 days at a time but in my opinion will not eclipse the old high (ES 1216.75)until sometime in June. I think we will make a double bottom off of which the rally to your 1270 target level will occur. Near term I find it unlikely we will move much higher than 1184-1188 ES before falling again to new lows. This is just the first leg down of a two leg down move in my opinion. I do think your target is close to the low we are likely to see 1145-1150 ES. As I said before, you have been saying we are rallying to 1270off several different bottoms for several weeks and that has been incorrect. The signs that we were overdue for a sizable correction were there all along. The fact that your constantly looking to be bullish keeps you from seeing and profiting from these moves which are natural parts of the overall bull market. The previous pullback (January/February)went all the way down to the 200 day EMA for a day but mostly found support @ the 150 day EMA. Look for similar turning points for this pullback. This is not intended as a slight as I obviously enjoy and follow your work but just some friendly observations based on my work which like yours is not always right. Keep up the good work.

Win said...

Wonderful work, sir. Also, regarding your post about the market topping X days after 10 MA peak in advancing issues ... as someone has said earlier, "you are a teacher". Thank you, sir.

dcatlowpj said...

Carl, I live and breathe chart analysis and your chart is very telling. I also noticed, from bringing up my own 30m chart in my TOS platform that we have a lot of gaps but they are mostly down-gapping Price Action....on your chart, I can only see one up-morning gap in view. The long reach to 1154.75 was followed by a quick buy-in by the market makers....that long reach candle was a sucker sell which cost a lot of amateurs to sell which turned into a buying rally off that low. The lower channel line will need to be filled now for a confirmation and this is what I am looking for.