Friday, May 14, 2010

Update

Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing day session e-mini trading.

The drop from yesterday's 1174.75 high has been much bigger than I expected. I thought that 1155 was the most likely stopping point and that a 45 point drop to 1130 would be the worst we would see. But the market today has spent a fair amount of time trading below 1130. Moreover, the selling today has been relentless and on fairly high volume.

I think the market is about to retrace most, but not all, of the rally from 1102 to 1174 which resulted from the announcement of the rescue package for Greece. Midpoint support stands at 1113 (purple dotted line) and 1116 is the midpoint of the second box for this rally. I think we shall see a reaction low Monday or Tuesday. Once the drop from 1174 is over the move to 1300 should resume.

18 comments:

kcounty said...

good stuff carl, thanks.

extrader said...

I think this market will go down to the 1105-06 area to fill that gap and may even retest 1100!

Don't see it happening today, most likely next week, unless we get another trader with a fat finger!

ex

MaverickUK said...

Carl. I respect you a great deal and think most of your calls have been amazing. However, I think the top is in and I don't think we'll even double top.

The reason being is that for the first time since Mar 09 the monthly charts give a clear topping signal. We may have already have seen the reaction highs of the sell off from a week ago. This now means that we will put in new lows and the drops will be fierce as we are witnessing and most likely far worse than the original bear market.

The S&P now has a target of 450.

spycharter said...

The volume may be high, but the volume is dropping off. I've never seen a selloff last on dropping volume. Today is a great buying opportunity

Joseph said...

Thanks Carl,appreciate the response. I believe if 1130 broke it would move us down to 1090-1100
Thanks
Joe

Market Karma said...

The June emini's reached the 1124 -1120 zone for support as per this post.

http://marketkarma.blogspot.com/2010/05/sp500-update-may-13-2010.html

Good chance for rally to materialize now but I have to say, the VIX index and other risk gauges suggest this low, at 1124, will not be long lasting.

MK

Rajeev Bharol said...

Good to see so many bulls around.

VS said...

The short zone 65-75 kept the market in check. The volume on low ticks is increasing. I am about to welcome bear market in ES but need to watch few more days for confirmation. I am still looking at taking cautious shorts. I will be more comfortable with shorts after break of 1113.

Forget 1300, the market will move toward 800-900.

vs-trader.blogspot.com

waw4 said...

1126.25 is the halfway point between the Oct 07 top and the Mar 09 bottom.

extrader said...

Topping patterns everywhere i look!

the END of the bull market is here! the EUR is not looking good and i see next target of 116, and could be on its way to parity with USD... at which by then the ECB will have to step in and raise rates which will not look good for the overall economy.... and im sure Bernanke will follow to raise interest rates which will further hamper the recovery and housing!



ex

lilies said...

for Pete's sake , all these droppings and rallyings back and forth and we're still only given up 200 from May 7th, taking points back from wall street sure is not easy, it's like taking candies from a baby, I want that damn candy !!!!

Jens said...

It's simple. Just wait for JPM to give the green light for further upmoves. Until then...lay low or short the market.

Chad said...

Was in the bull camp for the next week but now think that the best we can do is travel down the sideways slow road to hell whereas they will release the kracken on all of us.

Out of the market until I can throw some stones (puts) on this monster.

E said...

That 1153 held as we thought it important and today's test of 25 and 28.5 was expected by our methodology.

Now the battle should get interesting.

Have a great weekend all. Thanks for your candid assessment Mr Futia.

Dave Narby said...

I think we get a decent bounce, but I'm ambivilent to whether we make new highs.

Sell rips, buy dips... Well, maybe wait a couple days before buying dips...

mfm9800 said...

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I love your charting! But this time your charts tell me that we'll see 1140 (tops) and then we'll visit 1090.

Naveedah said...

Thanks alot for giving this blog well on time to save me.ES_F is bearish for short time because of fear for weak European and Chinese economies .
Longs average was 1127.50,went out on closing @1135.75.Like always,I"ll acknowledge your great help in learnings & successful trades.

P said...

Looks like you might have had it right with your update on the 10th of May using PF chart. You anticipated a reaction to the lower trendline (around 1120, I guess) before the up-trend resumes to ~1275 target.

Here's hoping the market becomes "safely" tradeable once again.

Thanks for all the updates and teachings!

Best regards,
-PA.