Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Guesstimates on May 26, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1065-95. I think yesterday's low at 1036.75 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see a series of 20-30 point swings up and down within the 106--1100 range over the next few days. Once the market stabilizes a move to 1300 will begin.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is starting to stabilize. The 131 level is resistance. Support is at 122. I think a move to 140 will begin from current levels.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Joe said...

Hi Carl,

Though your predictions in the last few weeks did not work out well, this time I agree with you, that we probably reached at least a temporary low on Tuesday.
Predictability of this market however is seemingly smaller, than during normal periods (15 < VIX < 30).
Obviously the Bulls stepped in to defend the long-term trend, as a natural reaction for the developments.
If the market would drop another 5 - 7%, than the long-term trend would clearly be broken and the stance of the big fund managers would change a lot, toward
Bear market responces.
It is clearly not the case at this moment. The market quickly rejected the February lows and moved up desivively the second time in a week Yesterday.

You were not really traded during the past few weeks, probably because of less confidence in your predictions.(?)

As you made most of your profits with your Day - trading, I can't really see the importance of your long - term predictions, as you never play them, you rarely have even overnight positions on the table.

Yes, as always, the market can go at least three ways, Up, Down or sideways.
We prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.
The potential worst is that according to DOW phasing theory, we are in a very long Bear market
and this Up move since March 2009 is only a correction before a bigger down move below the March 2009 levels as the phase two decline.

The best possibility is that no Asia (China), no Europe and no US experience depression and
within 3 - 6 month we reach a new high or at least get close to that, in case of forming a H&S pattern within the next 2 - 6 month. (The high being the right shoulder)

Since the market is very expensive, I am not giving high prbability for a new market high
soon. If the magicians would not have replaced recently the 20 worst company with the biggest
losses in the S&P500 with companies having big profits, than the actual market PE would be
closer to 25 or above that, and not 20 - 22 and far from the long-term average of 14 - 16.

We probably see 950 sooner than 1300 in the market.


Joe Papczun

Naveedah said...

All out @1085.
Market is choppy.
Thanks Carl for every support in this critical times.Easy to criticise but
hardly be any one helping like you do.

Harry said...

Hi Carl,

Iam wondering why you didn't make a play late yesterday?


roguewave said...

...thanks go troll-for-cash somewhere else while the rest of us trade and all without your noise pollution

pimaCanyon said...

right Joe. You are making a lot of assumptions about Carl's trading, the most blatant one being that if Carl is trading he will always post it here. He has never said that. In fact, he has said just the opposite.

Without all those incorrect assumptions and finger pointing, your post could have been condensed to one line: that you believe we'll see 950 before we see 1300.

VS said...

I have been tracking this blog for sometime and though my views are exactly opposite as I have mentioned in the some other comments, I must say hats off to the "daily range". Really impressed by the accuracy on that count and that information in itself is worth a lot in terms of planning trades whatever directional views I might have.

As of now I am of the opinion that rallies need to be sold in ES. 1175 top will remain in place for a long time and we should lower and lower lows.