Friday, May 14, 2010

Guesstimates on May 14, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: I think that last week's low at 1056 ended the correction from 1216. Today's range estimate is 1139-55.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is starting to stabilize. The 131 level is resistance.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

June Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400.

SLV - July Silver: I now think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 495-505 zone is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


curt said...

i would guess that we see a fairly typical A-B-C correction which should take us back down to last weeks lows...thats the time to buy.

spycharter said...

Totally agree with your range estimate Carl. If SPY breaks 113.8 then it could drop all the way to 111.26 to fill the gap. I expect SPY 113.8 to hold and provide the best buying opportunity.

John said...

Germans love talking down the Euro...but it will be at the risk of everyone else.

Bad news for US exporters.

dcatlowpj said...

Might be headed for S2 pivot here...

Win said...


I think you got your 45 point reaction here. I'm still bullish near term (for the next few weeks). Good luck. Not that you need it!

Naveedah said...

Once again,fear dominated,Why i am bullish.covered s@1134,went long too.
ppl looking for 1111,and below!
1174.75 was n't broken 2days,bomb in greece,closing positions on Fri etc
caused 43+pts correction. market is in its move to1200++
keeping longs on weekend,that bullish I am!

tapped out said...

spyer, your SPY support level seems to be working for the moment, if we return to test it could be all systems go!

Rajeev Bharol said...

Just as too much bearishness last year caused market rally, I see too much bullishness all around these days.

Now Nobody at my work place thinks markets will/can go down. Fed will save us all.

Should that not be bearish.

Harry said...

Market stalled out this week at the 20 and 50 day EMAS from underneath, first time since the 2009 bottom.

John said...

Market is acting like a bear same comment for the entire week.

Keep you're eye on the TED spread. Debt and leverage the house of cards holding up this mess.

Kishore said...

The focus should be on making money now, as per the market moves, and not on this talk of future bullish / bearish BS. t

Kishore said...

ES has retraced close to 61.8% of the move up from 1101 to 1171. After covering my shorts at 1129.50, I am out for the day, though probably prematurely. ES may go down some more but I will wait for the next shorting opportunity when the market retests 1171. 61.8% or more retracement means that the move up from 1056 has no legs.

Joseph said...

we hit 1130/1125, do you guys believe this is a great entry point. OIL hit may 71-72 number. Any thoughts, looking for your feedback.