Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Guesstimates on May 19, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Contrary to my expectation Monday's low at 1113 was broken by 8 points in Asian trading last night. My range estimate for today is 1100-25. I still think that last week's low at 1056 ended the correction from 1216. Strength above 1120 would be very bullish.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is starting to stabilize. The 131 level is resistance. Support is at 122. I think a move to 140 will begin from current levels.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400.

SLV - July Silver: I now think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 495-505 zone is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


extrader said...

I think you have been wrong this past week and have not realized that the Bull Market is done for now! You have made some great calls for the past 18months or so, but I think your too bias towards the Bulls!


curt said...

i think today is an important day...lots of bad news in the markets, if they tank then a retest of the recent lows is assured and likely we will break below them. If we see buyers today then I think this A-B-C correction will be sideways (C leg) but last a bit longer. Hard to imagine that after a yr of pretty much straight up that we would resume a bullish trend without a more significant period of correction (time).

tempo said...

The market was about to make the predicted move up yesterday when
Germany announced naked short sale ban. This ban will cut CDS prices and liquidity and mandate cash to back positions. short sellers and CDS holders rushed to sell stocks to covered naked short sale positions and underfunded positions. This may take the market lower short term but longer term (withing a few weeks) the market will make the move up.

Chad said...

carl,If I could get you post your thoughts in the form of a contra-contrarian swing trading it would be very valuable.

Having said that during the close today 3;37 pm will be a very critical time frame that if up should support your bullish call to 1200.

There is something to your box ideas which is kind of like quantum physics. I continue to check your very unique trading style.

Thanks, Chad

Rune said...

ES is showing an extreme reluctance to stay under 1110. Gap from May 10 has also been filled.

Me XMan said...

Extreme reluctance? It's been there for more time than my Grandpa sitting on the throne.

dcatlowpj said...

To say the least, Contrarian trading today tells us to go long for sure.

DMA Trader said...

Carl you have been right for more than an year like extrader says.

Can you take also into consideration a change in trend. You were against the market in 2008 but still been profitable.

Just elaborate for us a bearish scenario. Or a price level that would change the trend in your view.

Excellent work during this hard years.

EricH said...

In 2008, when the Dow plunged from 14K to 10K, it was 'contrarian' to buy too right?

marketmaker said...

You guys need to stop drinking the cool aid. Markets should have never of been up here in the first place. With the non stop propping and overnight pumping, there is a massive imbalance of liquidity under the markets.

Uncle Ben created this and now there is no way to stop iit.
Wait to buy the spx at or near the 06-20-10 time frame and look for the it to be trading sub 1000..960ish is a wolfewave target..

Good luck and if you are holding for may be holding for a long time..Mid summer, if you are lucky. The fact that the es bounce 60 points off the lows..well that just ads to the imbalnace of liquidity..because if you think that was real buying..again, the cool aid stand is over there

MaverickUK said...

Carl you have made some great calls since Mar 09, but also some horrendous ones (as does everyone at times). But your refusal to become bearish and always be bullish is suicidal. How on earth could you have remained bullish when the markets collapsed in 08? Did you not understand what was happening?

I acknowledge that it is very difficult if you hold a particular stance which you have had a fair degree of success over 12 months to suddenly switch and you give the markets the benefit of the doubt - I have that same problem, but to me once I saw what the monthly charts were saying it became clear that this rally was over and where it stalled also confirmed that view.

In Dec 07 I told anyyone who would listen to me that the markets were going to halve in 08 and they more or less did.

Now I believe the S&P is going to 450 and the Dow to 4700. The bull run which actually was a monster rally is, I believe over. The S&P came a few pips short of breaking its downtrend from March 09 and then collapsed.

Your failure to understand what is happening on a global level - the same reason why markets collapsed initially - is a major flaw it seems in your analysis. Normally, I don't pay too much attention to news and trade technicals, but this will be 2008 on steroids. This time we are talking about governments/ countries going bankrupt not just banks!!! Everything is interlinked. Eg even countries that may on the face of it be relatively stable, will hold large portions of other countries debts that are at risk and hence they become at risk. You will see speculators target currency after currency and at the moment they are going to break the Euro and then down goes Europe. Then it will be the pound and then the dollar.

China will start dumping its massive holdings of US debt - you then have the nightmare scenario.

As I always said to people I advise - you cannot solve a problem created by debt by creating even more debt - at some point the buck has to stop and that is what I believe we are now seeing. Look for 450 on the S&P by end of the year if not in a few months. This sell off will be severe.

Kishore said...

marketmaker, there is only Kool-aid that is served in casinos. It is also the most favorite drink of both perma-bulls and perma-bears.

Me XMan said...

Where's the money going into with this selloff to 450? Hard gold?

Chad said...

I dont think that the market will actually reach 1200 but the next move up will support Carls 1200 thesis until next week at least...

For now more blue skys ....