Monday, May 03, 2010

Guesstimates on May 3, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1181 - 1195. I am still expecting the market to make a higher low above last week's 1177 low. Even if I am wrong about this the worst I see on the downside is 1162. In any event a swing to 1270 will begin soon.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

June Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. Resistance is at 1187. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance is now 19.00.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway. It now looks like the drop from the temporary high at 630 will continued down to 505.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


myshortpencil said...


You do great analysis. Have you noticed the large topping tail on the SPY monthly chart?

Bill said...

From the current level the next 5% move is down not up.

pimaCanyon said...


Look at SPY monthly, October 09. Same kind of candle, even more bearish because it's a red candle! What happened the next month?

And by the way, because we're talking candlestick charts here, the lines above and below the body are called wicks. Who came up with this "tail" terminology anyway?

TMG2010 said...

PimaC, I guess you are saying in short, Houston we have a problem, sell everything and GO SHORT! ?

pimaCanyon said...

TMG2010, no am I not. myshortpencil pointed out the "topping tail", as he put it, on the monthly chart, the implication being that we had a "top" last month (ergo the name "TOPPING tail").

I am saying look at the monthly, Ocotber 09, same kind of candle (except that it was a red candle, perhaps even more bearish), and what happened the next month? The market went UP!

Going short because of a "topping tail" on the monthly looks like a roll of the dice to me, not something I would recommend.

ajgreene said...


You are the man! Just wondering why you think the next big move in Oil is down to $50 yet you're saying the S&P is going to 1270. Since Oil and the S&P have been basically trading in lockstep, I don't understand your logic here. Can you please explain your logic on this.

TMG2010 said...

PimaC, Oops sorry I was looking at Oct '08. My bad! I went long at the open but watching it closely, downside could hit at any time...

Wags94596 said...


For some reason, Carl has not attempted to answer this question in regards to his prediction about $50 crude oil, and a continuing rally inthe SPX to 1270.

I really wish that he would address this incongruity. I have asked him about this a couple of months ago, but did not obtain a response.