Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Guesstimates on May 25, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1030-65. I expect a long lasting low to develop today or tomorrow. Once the low has been established I think the ES will begin a rally that will take it to 1300 and higher.

QQQ: Support stands at 42.40. A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is starting to stabilize. The 131 level is resistance. Support is at 122. I think a move to 140 will begin from current levels.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


MaverickUK said...

Sorry Carl but markets have just made a significant breakout on the downside. Keep selling - I know I am.

Aarpenn said...


Congratulations! You prevailed yet again with your 1030-1040 estimate. Now is the test. Lot of people didn't believe, after the action on friday, that it would come down below 1040. Now if it turns around and heads back up (it doesn't have to go to 1300, even if it tests the previous high), I will take a bow sir.


Bill said...

The problem I see right now is that Europe, even the FTSE is hitting lows not seen since early September last year. If the S&P heads that road we are talking S&P 500 1000. If this continues we are going to see 52 week lows on the major european indices shortly.

And the way Europe is hitting these lows is with no rebound whatsoever, meaning this can go even lower.

The technical damage done is phenomenal.

Now the market is so oversold that you'd think that at least a temporary bottom should form, but buyers don't seem to be coming in.

catherine said...

I agree Carl. We have been holding 1040 in Europe. The low may already be in, Copper, yen crosses supported.
Where you and I differ is not if there will be a rally, (which I believe there will be) or even if or if not a new high is formed, but the bigger picture. This is a trial run for a much bigger drop after the last gasp rally. Overall this is a big correction in a massive bear market. We will see. I expect in 2011 , markets to be much lower

Rajeev said...

Dear Carl,
Its a classic heads and shoulder with a target of 985. Moreover May 6 was not an aberration.


Win said...

Good work, Carl!

Atrader said...

1216.75-1126.25 = 90.50

1126.25-90.50 = 1035.75

The low is in.

If all goes ot plan....ES at 1320 max by Aug 10/Sept 2010.

DX should drop by 8-9 cents now. Gold should rally to 1350/1380, silver new highs, Euro, BP rally etc all by Aug 10

DX ususall has a whipsaw move and before it makes the high to 95 as happened last time to 90

The alternative scenario is the ES hovers around 1148/1126.25/1112 area and then tests 1036.75 come Aug 10 and then we move up. That means DX will reach 95 by Aug 10 and gold, CAD etc and test the lows by Aug 10.

I'm favouring the 1st scenario...but in all in the charts

Bill said...

We just broke the February low on the S&P 500. Officially at a 7 month low.

Sammy Iyer said...

Dear Carl
I really appreciate your courage and un emotional forecast every day.
people are scared by news. you live in a world of supply ,demand and 30-50 point boxes. Europe is a basket case.Asia,South america are all booming.USA is not so basket (ben can print ,he is not impotent
like ECB).If GS case gets resolved,SPX can surprise every one and turn on a dime. Iam expecting 1170 by june 1st.

Atrader said...

The first sign of a reversal that we are moving up to 1113.00/1126.25
is a daily close today May 25 above 1053.00/1053.25.

If so then 1134.75 is the target as resistance.

Fear = opportunity, Greed = be careful

Bankers are controlling the "Game."

These "scares" have happened since 1982...mexico crisis, etc and all it is, is for the bankers to lend more money, bankrupct more nations and more profit and then prop up the stock mkt and property mkts...the game never changes.

There will be a "Time" when the music stops...but's it a long way off.

sandy allred said...

Looks like early Tuesday would have been the correct call last week. Fits and starts continue. Bargains everywhere this AM. Thursday/Friday advances should hold.

Catherine...some of us remember your DOW 3,000 forecast for September of 2008 and your recognition of the obvious state of denial with respect to the Obama 'recovery'. I even printed that forecast and pinned it up by my keyboard! I disagree with your forecast of 'much lower prices in 2011' though as I expect two to three waves of false recovery hopes to support prices through 3Q 2011 and only then will a more orderly decline commence with the bottom occurring around mid 2012. I think this will be the time we will see the levels you are projecting. So it is not a matter of if for us, just when?

Kishore said...

As we have witnessed numerous market manipulations, big players can move the market any way they want.

As there was a huge overnight drop in the futures, what would be the reason for causing this drop without having to sell stocks?

One possible explanation could be that the big players want to accumulate stocks at lower prices.

This theory is in line with Carl's vision of much higher prices ahead.

Jack said...

Market oversold soon. create some buying opptys. But won't pick up this knife. (IMHO) we won't see a rally until fall going into earning season. (Maybe July)

Again, play the charts. Not opinions


andi said...

market is broken and carl's target of 1300 is improbable..
however a rally is a-coming..perhaps as high as 1150..
prepare to sell your holdings when that happens..

P said...

With the break of 1156 now, I hope Carl would comment on Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house formation. And if the 1300 target fits within that.

Thank you.

Atrader said...

The key for now is 1126.25. First target resistance is 1134.75. Above 1126.25 firm we going to 1320

It either a good high till 2012 and then down or till 2014/15 and then down.

If DX goes to 77/79 then gold and ES, CAD get to 1350-1380, 1.02-1.05
by Aug 10.

Then we should see the DX move up to 95/96 come June 2011 with the indices, gold etc.......basically everything crashing.

Except a few commodities and I'm not talking metals.

If this is the case then by June 2011 the test of 1036.75 will happen ( assuming is the low now) and then we move to unheard of highs in the ES, YM etc. by 2015 as the DX goes from 95 to 41 by 2012.

I do not think we come close to testing 665.75. Was a great buy.

Then we crash in 2015/2016.

Its 1992-1999 all over again.

Buffet has not SOLD out..nor am I.

When gold gets to 1350..I will be buying puts way OTM with time. around 800-700. GC low will be 750-640

To be rich you have to control your mind...the one that flips on a decision all the time

Edwin said...

Positive Divergence is showing up in TBT(short bond ETF) but not yet in SPX. The down leg may be near to conclusion but we'll need one more hard push down to allow set up of positive divergence.

Aarpenn said...

Mr Atrader - it's funny you have 'trader' in your net name, but your theories are all for the long term investors. Traders don't worry about 2015 and 2016! they worry about today, tomorrow and next week:-)



VS said...

1300 is out of question, next possible stop for this down leg is 1015-950 (extreme). Any rally would be an opportunity to short and 1175 should hold as top for long term and a good place to place stops for shorts.


extrader said...

I will be watching todays final hour of trading to see if we sell off... I think if we rally into the final hour, the low has been exhausted and would agree with Carl that the next move is up!

Lets see what develops into the last hour!

Kishore said...

Today's gap down looks like an exhaustion gap. However, how does one get exhausted running downhill? Don't we accelerate? No wonder we go down much faster!

Anyways, THEY will always get you, coming or going!