Friday, May 28, 2010

Guesstimates on May 28, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1093-1110. I think the low at 1036.75 ended the drop from 1216. The market has broken above the 1089 high of its recent trading range and this means that a move to 1300 is underway.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is starting to stabilize. The 131 level is resistance. Support is at 122. I think a move to 140 will begin from current levels.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Naveedah said...

1088--1108 mine.
thank you!
We can see 1089. Buying is obvious
but long weekend can cause volatility.
weekend will keep me going through all your blogs thoroughly.
Thank you,Sir for my everyday leaning!
Stay Safe and Enjoy Weekend!

Market Karma said...

I know bonds are not your focus for this blog, but when are you going to update your 10y bond yield forecast? A 4.5% forecast is nice but since you posted this, its gone from 4% to 3.10% and is now 3.3%. Perhaps the forecast should now read something like, "I think we will see 4.5% reached before 2.9%" which would be a more bold forecast from current levels of 3.3%. In my opinion, if prices move by the equal and opposite amount relative to the forecast, then one might rethink the forecast. Thus forecasting 4.5% with rates trading 4% suggests if 3.5% is reached first, the forecast (or forecast path) may need to be revised.