Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Guesstimates on May 5, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: I estimate today's day session range will be 1156-1175. I think a swing to 1270 will begin soon.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support near 131.00 has been broken. Next downside target is 124-125.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

June Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. Resistance is at 1187. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance is now 19.00.

Google: The 495-505 zone is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


extrader said...

i think the BULL party is over for now! market had priced in all the good news, but without jobs, how can the economy grow?

Market Karma said...

10y opens 3.55%, below the 3.60% year 2010 support. Lets see how it closes today. If it does not retake 3.60% by Friday close, it might be time to revisit the 4.50% projection. -MK

boris said...

Hit the AHAP1=1.1173 On SwissY
Either EURO Decline stops and Market decline stops here
Or we go short trip to HELL

Bill said...

Normally I would agree with Carl. Every correction since the lows last March was followed by a quick bounce.

This time is different though. The european debt problems resembles October 2008. And it took 6 months until March 2009 for the market to bottom. I believe barring immediate government action the market will deteriorate further over the next few months.

Carl how can the market go to 1270 in the midst of bonds pricing debt default in Europe?

Spain is hitting 12-month lows, China is hitting 7-month lows. Don't you think all this has just started to spill over in North America?

Daniel said...

FAS is down 66 (67%), please anybody comment why?

ollie said...

Thanks for the great work. Just wondered what you thought of the chances of a major reversal/large correction from current levels, A few of the blogs I follow seem to be saying this. One has been pretty accurate on the recent rise and picked the 1220 reversal level.
Best Wishes,
PS the site was if you are interested.

TG4TA.stockman said...

I don't know what the market will do, but I believe that Carl is correct. Why? Where else are the money managers going to put their money? bonds? treasuries? real estate?

Until interest rates rise, this smoldering economy will continue to grow and with that the market will might be capped at 1200/1300, but nonetheless, I do not foresee the PIIGS killing the recovery.

Aarpenn said...


FAS - split - 3 to 1

dcatlowpj said...

TG4 - - you are on to something. Equities are the only place for the institutions to make some gains...however, they COULD short, esp the hedge funds.

Jack said...


I am surprised you are not LONG yet. Maybe has not hit your triggers.

Happy Trading

Edwin said...

An intense battle..bulls defending the 50 day SMA. If it holds and when RSI rises above 50, I shall place a mother of all buy order.

We are at short term max. pessimism as you see image of riot on TV and sadly ppl getting killed.

Bill said...

Who better to say what's going to happen than Mark Arbeter chief technical strategist at Standard & Poor’s. This is what he told CNBC today

“The VIX is going to stay elevated,” Arbeter told CNBC.

“The first phase of the bull market is complete—the price structure since March 2009 has been very similar to the bull market off the 2003 lows as well as 1982 lows.”

From here, Arbeter said he expects the markets to correct anywhere from 10 to 15 percent over the next 6 to 10 months.

“Typically, the first major correction in a bull market lasts fairly long…so I think we’re in for a very choppy sideways to down market into the fall months, and possibly into the first quarter of 2011," he explained, adding, "and I see major damage more so over in Europe and Asia than in the U.S.”

“At worst, you might give 30 to 38 percent of this rally since March—possibly 50 percent,” he continued. “Even at 50 percent, that will take the S&P back to about 950, but I think that will take time and I don’t think there’s any way we’ll get back to the lows.”

However, the bull market will resume after the correction, he said.

“The breadth on the NYSE has been so strong and typically the breadth peaks well before the bull market peaks,” he said. “We’ve seen broad sector participation and that suggests that this is just a pause in the bull market and the bull market has further to go.”

RajeevBharol said...

>>> Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240. <<<

In your other blog you said, AAPL should peak within about 4 months of the cover story in the magazines! do you mean within 4 months it will reach 350.

I know you never respond to comments which makes us feel like Fools but I would still ask.

Daniel said...


Many Thanks. Same was the case with DRN.

ajgreene said...


Great call today! - you said you expected a range today of 1,156 to 1,175 and the range was 1,155 to 1,175. I want that crystal ball.