Thursday, May 20, 2010

Guesstimates on May 20, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: My range estimate for today is 1075-1115. I still think that last week's low at 1056 ended the correction from 1216. Strength above 1120 would be very bullish.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is starting to stabilize. The 131 level is resistance. Support is at 122. I think a move to 140 will begin from current levels.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 495-505 zone is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

25 comments:

curt said...

carl..strength above 1120 is bullish...a break of what number would be very bearish?

troy said...

when you sya contrarian are you suggesting we trake the exact opposite of your positions? Its been 6 months that you have been wrong on gold, silver AND the /es. At what point do you throw in the towel?

Harry said...

1% below the 200 day moving average now at 1088, pretty bad looking.

Kishore said...

ES should go higher if it breaks 1095. But then, it should crash again at 1100, 1110 or 1120, or as soon as PPT takes a coffee break. Very risky to play either side!

FMT said...

Curt, Carl is never bearish. :)
FMT

MaverickUK said...

Carl - what are you going to say if we take out the 1056 level most probably either today or tomorrow?

You may not have realised but these markets are now seemingly a one way bet - South. They are incapable of rallying anything substantial at the moment and any small rally is getting sold heavily into. There may be a temp stabilisation after options expiry tomorrow, but that will only set it up to make new lows in my opinion.

mfm9800 said...

Why such a WIDE range (40 pts) for the S&P? That appears to be one of your biggest range estimates. Because of the overseas plunge?

Fang Dog said...

Yesterday you said ignore the flash crash low, now your calling for support at that level. If we ignore the tail a drop below 110 seems to have violated the support OR you include the tail. Which is it?

spycharter said...

With options expiration being tomorrow, I'm skeptical of this morning drop. Gold and the dollar barely budged overnight, yet SPY drops? Might be a shakeout

Ali said...

the big drop in 6 may wasnt a mistake, it was a real drop and a hint of the bearish trend.

ajgreene said...

Carl,

I think you're great and have been right more than you've been wrong...however your recent continued bullish calls as you revise your daily estimates lower seems to reduce your credibility. I just can't see how we're going to bounce from these levels on our way back to 1200 anytime soon.

Best,

Adam

Kishore said...

I am soon expecting a big rally that will knock the daylight out of the shorts. It will be as fast as the down-slide. Never underestimate the power of HFT conspiracies!

Edwin said...

We have the deepest retracement on hand since the March 2009 low as we are approaching 2% below the 200 days MA.

I will be be watching for divergences before taking on a new position. For divergences to develop, we probably will have to drop below the Feb low. Ugh!

pimaCanyon said...

Carl, lots of comments today in a short time window. Commenters are getting pissed too. What do you think, enough negative comments to indicate a bottom?

Atrader said...

I think Kishore has a point.There is going to be a huge rally.

Edwin good pt.

Have not seen Sandy post..maybe he made enuf money.

We have a 1-2-3 pt top 1216.75-1176.75-1207.25. The 1126.25 has been hit and Dec ES contract 50% is 1086/1088 area I think.

1148-1127.25 range in Jan 10-21 is key and so is the 1126.25 50%.

My dates were Jan 21 drop..good, March 16 drop..but we made new highs to 1148 and April 16 drop.

I flipped after reading Futia, but Carl is good and a trader should blame ANYBODY but himself for his trades.

Sandy had it down with a drop from 1215..93 pt drop.

However, Futia will be correct as I'm betting we get past 1216.75 to 1223-1275 by July 15-Aug 10.

The key is 1126.25 on a weekly close and I'm expecting it will me close above come May 21. So far 2 day daily closes below at 1107 and May 19 at 1110.00.

June 2011 has to be a low area and its too early for a retest of 665.75.

Gold lkg for a 1-2-3 top with 1249 the #1. Come Jan 2011 maybe after expecting $800-645 area and silver at $10-8.

If we rally the DX should give up one of its whipsaws a big drop like the last 2 years...so far none.

CAD and AUD will be great buys into 2012. See monthly for numbers for support. CAD to 1.21 and 1.57 with AUD up to 1.27-1.45.

Coffee next big move into July 2011

Atrader said...

spycharter me too of the drop on prior to expiration given there were so many puts to calls.

I guess the puts were by Goldman, Morgan et al.....not retail losers.

So i got jacked. Hey went you don't control the game...it happens.

siricor said...

Funny how as soon as the market goes south and Carl is bullish, but may be off by a couple of days that everyone is ready to come down hard on him. Does anyone remember last year February when Carl was saying we are about to see one of the biggest rallies in history... just think if you had listened to that call. I applaud your efforts and I understand that no one is perfect all of the time. To those that continue criticize time and time again, I challenge YOU to put your daily targets up here everyday!

Rajeev Bharol said...

Infact ever since the sell off started everybody is expecting a rally anytime.. Bulls as well as bears. I think Bears are still cautious, closing shorts in anticipation of a huge rally.

The fact that people have been conditioned to expect a rally to new highs after every dip is hurting the bull cause right now.

I think Significant bounce will not come until the Dip buyers and bargain hunter start giving up.

curt said...

i agree with siricor...the only reason you ppl are here is because Carl has a proven track record that most of you can only wish you could duplicate. It drives me nuts when guys pile on Carl for making calls, the guy has been a lot more right than wrong.
Carl, personally I thank you for all the insights you have given, its helped me tremendously

billclarkgagne said...

Obviously in a down channel and top of down channel won't be tested until we bounce to 1120+ so that's off the horizon for a bit. Daily RSI is not even technically oversold yet (32.x) on my daily so we could get to Flash Crash levels before we see 30 RSI (14). One technician commented "it happened and now its there on the charts". I agree. We were overbought from approx. 3/10 to 4/15, point being we could do the opposite for a while especially given the Europe mess. The pattern for the Feb low is similar to the current pattern - down, slight retrace up, profit taking down and up.

Statistically up has more likelihood regardless of bear/bull but will need top of channel to break and MA's to turn up. Long now is picking pennies up in front of a bulldozer as someone once said.

My opinion.

sandy allred said...

Six more sessions left to go in May. Monday, 31 May, market closed.
Starts and fits tomorrow. Advance begins off Monday lows. Blowout rally through 20 June. Bargains are everywhere today, tomorrow and very early Monday....I guess.

F&H Painting said...

We just now got a daily divergence between the IWM and large cap indeces. Lwt's see if it holds.

Rajeev Bharol said...

Sandy,
Yes. Buy the dips.

catherine said...

Rajeev
take a look at usd idr is 1997 or the 2 day move in usd jpy in late 1998 and see what buying the dips would have done to you.
I lived and traded through those markets professionally - you dont mess with them, they will run you over.
At least wait for it to stop going down before talking about buying the dips and its still tanking right now.

ATOM ANT said...

That point and figure chart looks like the Wyckoff method. Is it?

TIA,

atom ant