Tuesday, May 09, 2006


Here is an hourly chart showing pit and electronic trading in June gold futures. I last commented on this chart here.

This morning the market broke above the 689 level which had been resistance. The next upside target is 725, the 2 7/8 multiple of the 252 low in 1999. Generally speaking bull markets do not end at 3/8 or 7/8 mulitples so I think it is reasonable to expect continuation up to the 3 1/8 multiple at 787 before a bear market sets in.

Gold has advanced 70% during the past year and 50% over the past 6 months. The monthly chart is showing near vertical movement over the past couple of months and I think this is a very unstable situation. So the first break of a reaction low will probably begin an extensive drop if not a new bear market. Right now the 673 level is the last reaction low to watch for this purpose.

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