Friday, May 12, 2006

Guesstimates on May 12, 8:50 am ET

June S&P Futures: The market has reached the 1306 support level at which point the drop from 1331 equals the length of the last reaction which had ended at 1300. I still think the market will make a low here.

June Bonds: The bonds broke well below support at 106-00 so the market will now drop to 104-20. Resistance above the market today is at 106-04.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes broke below 104-30 support today so I think the market will continue down to 104-04. Resistance above the market is at 105-04.

Euro-US Dollar: This market has been much stronger than I anticipated. This morning it moved a bit above the symmetry top of 129.27 seen in February 2005.  The subsequent action today indicated that the market is beginning a drop to short term support at 128.00. More weakness than that will have very bearish indications.

Dollar-Yen: The market has dropped a little below my 110.20 target. Even so I think the ground is being prepared for a big move up.

June Crude: The  upside target at the 74.30 level, the 7 5/8 multiple of the all time low at 9.75, has been reached and I think the market is on its way below $60.

June Gold: The market has reached the 725 target. My best guess is that 732 will hold for a few days and that a reaction to 700 will be the next development.  

July Silver: Silver is on its way to the 1600 level and meanwhile support stands at 1440.

Google: It looks like the third stage of the drop from 455 is underway and my downside target is 372. I still think GOOG will make it to 495.