Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Guesstimates on May 16, 8:50 am ET

June S&P Futures: The market has dropped 46 points from its 1331.25 high making this reaction so far equal in length to the January-February break. However we clearly have seen only the first phase of a three phase reaction. A rally into the 1310-1315 range is now underway and is the second phase of this correction. After the second phase top the third phase will carry the market down into the 1265-70 range.

June Bonds: Resistance today is at 106-14 and I expect the market to drop to 104-20 before a multi-point rally starts.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance today is 105-06 and I expect the market to drop to 104-04 before a multi-point rally starts.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market today stands at 128.90. The market broke sharply from its 129.70 high yesterday and took out the last low on the way up which stood at 128.53. This together with the fact this the drop from 129.70 was bigger than any other drop during the past month implies that the market will probably drop at least 300-500 pips from 129.70.

Dollar-Yen: The market is trading sideways in preparation for a big move up. A rally over the 111.50 level would tell me that this advance has begun. Today the 109.70 level is support.

June Crude: The market made a second consecutive lower top last week and now should drop to 66.50 on its way below 60.00.

June Gold: The market has broken the last low on the way up to its 732 high so will probably drop in a three phase reaction to 665 or so. Resistance today is at 705.

July Silver: Silver broke back below support at 1440 and will now probably continue down to 1210 or so. Resistance today is at 1420.

Google: Google has reached my third phase target at 372 and I am expecting the market to make a low near here and then head up to new highs.


Anonymous said...


In recent comments you no longer discuss your long(er)-term outlook for the USD/Euro. (1) Do you still expect $1.16 by Sept/Oct? (2) What event/time/price would change your longer-term outlook? With hopes that you will reply.....thanks in advance.

John Walker

Carl Futia said...

If my long term views change I'll say so on my blog. Meantime I am sticking with the views expressed in this post: