Thursday, May 04, 2006

Guesstimates on May 4, 8:50 am ET

June S&P Futures: Yesterday’s late break means that the market is headed for 1300. Resistance today is at 1316. I still think that the market will reach the 1350 level in a month or so.  

June Bonds: Support in the bonds today is at 105-20. I think the next big move will be a rally to 107-12.

June 10 Year Notes: Support today is at 104-20 but I think the next big move will be upward to 106-00.  

Euro-US Dollar: The market is stalling at 126.50 resistance and I think the next big move should carry from here to below 116.

Dollar-Yen: The market reached my downside target at the 112.50 level. The next big move in the dollar-yen will be upward. Resistance today is at 114.30.

June Crude: The  upside target at the 74.30 level, the 7 5/8 multiple of the all time low at 9.75, has been reached and I think the market is on its way below $60.

June Gold: Any drop below 655 support will indicate the start of a move below the 600 level. In the meantime resistance above the market is at 687.

July Silver: I think silver has started a move to 920 or so. Resistance above the market is at 1445.

Google: It looks like the drop from 455 is only the first phase of a three phase correction. I expect a rally into the 425-430 zone and then another drop to 360 or so. I still think GOOG will make it to 495 before it drops below 331.


Anonymous said...

RE: us$ / euro:

What price level, or price behavior, would change your forecast to bullish for the euro (e.g., expecting $1.40 instead of $1.16)?

Thanks in advance!

Anonymous said...

Carl, my good old chap you are totally off with the comments I read about the Euro. I hope everyone is still short the Greenback ... 1.2690 as we speak and going higher tomorrow.