Monday, May 22, 2006

Guesstimates on May 22, 8:50 am ET

June S&P Futures: I expect the market to rally to 1285 over the next day or two. Meantime Friday’s low at 1258.25 should hold but if it doesn’t the worst I see on the downside is 1255. The drop from 1331 looks like only the first phase of a bigger three phase drop which will probably carry the S&P down to 1230 or so. After that I still expect a move to 1350 or higher.

June Bonds: The market is now headed for the 110-111 zone. Resistance today is at 107-24 and support over the next day or two will be found near 106-08.

June 10 Year Notes: The notes should now rally into the 107-108 zone. Resistance today is at 106-04..

Euro-US Dollar: The market should continue the rally from Friday’s low at 126.91 and reach the 128.40 level in a day or two.  After that another leg down should carry to 126.00.  

Dollar-Yen: I think the low at 108.96 will hold. The market is preparing for a move up to 130. Support over the next day or two is at 111.00.

July Crude: Switching to July crude today; July is trading 78 cents over June. Support in the July contract is near 67.50. A drop to 60.00 and below is underway.

June Gold: The market broke support at 665 on Friday and this means that a much more substantial drop is underway. Downside target over the next few weeks is the 2 and 1/8 multiple of the 252 low which stands around the 535 level.

July Silver: Silver will probably continue down to 1100 or so.

Google: I think Google will probably hold Friday’s low at 360 and rally to 410.

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