Friday, May 05, 2006

Guesstimates on May 5, 8:50 am ET

June S&P Futures: A month ago the market bounced off of the 1324 level after the employment number and began a drop of almost 40 points.  Today it again rallied on the employment number and again bounced off of the 1324 level. This time I think it will break above 1324 instead of dropping. I still think that the market will reach the 1350 level in a month or so.  

June Bonds: I think a move to 107-16 has started.

June 10 Year Notes: I think a move to 106-00 has started.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has rallied further but I don’t think it will move much past 127.50 before beginning an extended drop. I think the next big move should carry from here to below 116.

Dollar-Yen: Support today is at 113.00. The next big move in the dollar-yen will be upward. Resistance today is at 114.30.

June Crude: The  upside target at the 74.30 level, the 7 5/8 multiple of the all time low at 9.75, has been reached and I think the market is on its way below $60.

June Gold: Any drop below 660 support will indicate the start of a move below the 600 level. In the meantime resistance above the market is at 687.

July Silver: I think silver has started a move to 920 or so. Resistance above the market is at 1445.

Google: It looks like the drop from 455 is only the first phase of a three phase correction. I expect a rally into the 425-430 zone and then another drop to 360 or so. I still think GOOG will make it to 495 before it drops below 331.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...


To repeat a request from yesterday (re the $/euro, though it would apply to the other markets as well): It would be most helpful to the people who follow your work if you would explain what price, pattern, or other event would change your forecast. In other words, for each forecast: where is your stop-loss point?

In the case of the euro: what price or event would change your forecast for the next $0.10 move?


J. Walker