Monday, May 15, 2006

Guesstimates on May 15, 8:50 am ET

June S&P Futures: The market has dropped 46 points from its 1331.25 high making this reaction so far equal in length to the January-February break.  However we clearly have seen only the first phase of a three phase reaction. From this I conclude that a rally into the 1310-1315 range is now likely as the second phase and that a third phase will carry the market down into the 1265-70 range.

June Bonds: Resistance today is at 105-28 and I expect the market to drop to 104-20 before a significant rally starts.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance today is 104-30 and I expect the market to drop to 104-04 before a significant rally starts.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has broken sharply from its overnight high of 129.70 and has taken out the last low on the way up which stood at 128.53. This together with the fact this the drop from 129.70 so far is bigger than any other drop during the past month implies that the market will probably drop at least 300-500 pips from today’s top.

Dollar-Yen: The market is trading sideways in preparation for a big move up. A rally over the 111.50 level would tell me that this advance has begun.

June Crude: The  market made a second consecutive lower top last week and now should drop to 66.50 on its way below 60.00.

June Gold: The market has broken the last low on the way up to its 732 high so will probably drop in a three phase reaction to 665 or so.

July Silver: Silver broke back below support at 1440 and will now probably continue down to 1210 or so.

Google: Google has reached my third phase target at 372 and I am expecting the market to make a low near here and then head up to new highs.