Thursday, March 19, 2009

Guesstimates on Mach 19, 2009

June S&P  E-mini Futures: The e-minis are trading at 796 as I write this, so we did NOT see a supply shock on yesterday’s last hour reaction. But the response to the Fed announcement was definitely a buying climax, so I think the market will trade sideways for a few days. Today’s range estimate is 775-805. The 840 level is still my target for this move up from 666.

QQQ: The 26.00 level is still support and I think the Q’s have started a move to 35.00.  

June Bonds: The bonds jumped a remarkable 8 points on the Fed news yesterday, but I don’t think the longer term bearish picture has changed. Resistance above the market is 132-16. Next downside target is 117.  

June 10 Year Notes: I think a bear market in the notes is underway. Resistance above the market is at 125-20.  Next downside target is 118.

Euro-US Dollar: I believe that the euro is headed for the 141.00 level. 130.50 is support.

Dollar-Yen: Then yen will probably react to 94.20 and then head for the 104.00 level.    

April Crude: The 30-35 zone is long term support. The 50.00 level is resistance.

GLD – April Gold: I think the market is now headed below 700. Resistance above the market is now at 955.

SLV - May Silver: Silver is still holding 1240 support but I think this level will soon be broken.  If it is the market will be on its way below 800.

Google: I think that its drop from 747 is over. Support is at 290. Next upside target is 410. 


Anonymous said...

The futures WERE trading down to 783-786 before the weird Citi news and then they popped up and stayed there. Hard to say if its a real move or just a fake jump on low volume premarket.

Anonymous said...


I admire your work in the indexs, bonds, euro & yen.
I guess here and now I dont grasp the gold or silver comments; what do you suggest I re-read.


Anonymous said...

Carl, it seems the market then is going to open close to the top of your range. Is this going to be the high of the day?

Anonymous said...

Gold blowing through your resistence points. I think larger factors than the charts are in play. The sudden race to devalue currencies for a competitive advantage on trade has bolstered the market and should continue for some time.

Anonymous said...

We need to see at least half the gains taken away from these bank stocks from the past week. I don't mind these stocks going up 50-100% in a couple of months, but, in one week????!!!!!! Yowser!!