Thursday, March 26, 2009

Update at 3 pm

Here is a five minute bar chart showing today's e-mini day session. Volume has been generally low all day. This lack of activity has prevented the market from reaching either of the range estimate limits I expected for today (blue rectangle). Dullness at the top of a rally like this usually means that the market is about to begin a substantial reaction. There are two midpoint support levels to watch in this regard. The midpoint of the day session range (dashed red line) and the midpoint of the first hour reaction (dotted purple line). A drop from the 829 high that is as big as today's early reaction would put the market at 817 (purple rectangles).

I suspect that the market is about to break these support levels because it has been rallying on reduced volume all day. If it does break them I think a 40-50 point drop from the high will then develop. This would bring the e-minis down to the midpoint support at 781.


Anonymous said...

Thank you for the truly imformative commentary beyond your trade recommendations!
Do you hold webminars or provide further educational services other than this blog?

Your candor is refreshing!


Anonymous said...

I agree with you...
By the way, 829 is the 20 weeks moving average on the has been broken on the down side in June 08... If we break it, it could give a second leg on the rally...

If not, we should at least see 780 again...


BTW you've been tremendous lately

Anonymous said...

you do not have to be or to feel sorry for not responding to questions. I have little experience and a little more knowledge in trading. But I have learnt the lesson already: there is no free lunch in the markets over and over again. People who expect you to respond to their questions do not get it, in my opinion! You provide a FREE educational service about trading every day!!! If some one expects more than that, they should go and get it for money. Greetings from Germany, Val

Anonymous said...

Hi carl
i have no problem with you not answering my questions that i post
and to be honest to dont ask many
lately though i have been reading through lindsays work so i have offered my own options and i posted them as a way to just offer my perspective on what you are doing in hopes that it will aid you in your own research . what i have discovered by doing this is it has aided me in understanding
more of lindsay's work . today your link of your 2009 posts
helped me to put a few things together . to sum it up i like to do my own research . and by looking at your own work and reading lindsay's work i put 2 and 2 together . there is no doubt in my mind that george lindsay's work will be a good blend to my own work which i have been using over the past several years .
so for all that carl
just keep doing what your doing
and from time to time ill dig through your back pages and continue to do my own work and begin appliing lindsay more and
more to the point where i have it all in the right place in terms of everything i do. my may problem
right now over the coming days is
my own cycles work . it has been a while since ive found myself somewhat confused , and while i make mistakes we all do . i still strive for perfection and settle for what the market gives the market is always right regardless
but a failure to decline into friday monday would imply my cycles are failing , and they just dont fail very often . friday is a key reversal date and based on everything i use it is supposed to be a low . the larger cycles are screaming bullish into june .
this leaves me with very few choices. 1 my work is completely wrong or 2 this market is going to take a large dump in the coming days . i laugh now , im bullish and i need a large decline to
confirm it .
enjoy your dinner carl
and thank you for bringing george lindsays work to me .

Anonymous said...

Carl, here is another blogger that shares your view of S&P at 1100

Anonymous said...

If there is a voting of some sorts, I'd like to vote your blog as No.1 - MOST interesting, MOST educational trading blog!!! :-)