Friday, March 13, 2009
Last Trade and a New Range Estimate
Here is a 5 minute bar chart of the JUNE e-minis, the most active contract now. My thinking on this morning's trade went as follows.
I am bullish and I thought that today's high would be 760. Normally this would incline me to be a buyer on any break below 750 that took the market 5-7 points below the open (which today was at 752.00). But on each of the last two days the market had rallied strongly from exactly that size break from the open, and I thought a repeat for the third day in a row was unlikely. But, because I am bullish, I was determined not to let the market rally to 760 without me. So when I saw it recover well from its early low at 745.75 and rally back above 750 I went long at 751.25 and bought a second unit at 753.00 (green arrows).
The market rallied as far as 755.75. But then a danger signal appeared. The market showed a visible jump in volume on a bar with a down close (red arrows). In fact that price bar was an example of a closing price reversal (CPR) bar - something familiar to chart readers. Now in an uptrend such CPR bars sometime show up but they rarely have any follow through. In this situation, since I was a little skeptical of the possibility of a strong rally from the open for the third straight day in any case, I decided that I would get out of my whole position if there was any downside follow through to the CPR bar. Such follow through showed up about 10 minutes later and I stopped myself out at the blue arrow.
I am revising my range estimate for today's day session to 740-765 (blue rectangle).