Friday, March 13, 2009

Guesstimates on March 13, 2009

June S&P  E-mini Futures: I expect a day session range of about 25 points today with a high near 760. It is likely that the next 40 point move from here will be downward, but I also think the market will reach the 840 level in a few weeks.

QQQ: The 26.00 level is still support and I think the Q’s have started a move to 35.00.  

June Bonds: I think the long term trend in the bond market is now definitely downward. Next downside target is 117.  

June 10 Year Notes: I think a bear market in the notes is underway. Next downside target is 118.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro is headed down to 122.50. Resistance above the market is at 130.50.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has nearly reached the 100.00 level. There is as yet no indication that the move up from 87.00 is over, so I now estimate that the yen will reach 104.00 before a substantial reaction begins.   

April Crude: The 30-35 zone is long term support. The 50.00 level is resistance. I think the market has started to stabilize.

GLD – April Gold: I think the market is now headed below 700. Resistance above the market is at 945.

SLV - May Silver: Silver is still holding 1240 support but I think this level will soon be broken.  If it is the market will be on its way below 800.

Google: I think that its drop from 747 is over. Support is at 290. Next upside target is 410. 


Anonymous said...

I tend to agree with your estimates on bonds and currency. Those estimates will be tested depending on action by the Fed. If they implement quantitative easing, this could cause commotion in several markets, possible resetting trends.

Anonymous said...

given that the overnight high was already 761, we shd see 735-ish next.

Anonymous said...


Whether I agree with your assessment of the direction of the market or not, I have learned much from your sharing of your knowledge. It is a generous and courageous gift to us struggling traders who follow along with your efforts. You are a teacher.

I have printed and framed your admonition on perfectionism. I have hung it just above my screen. I hope it will help to save my backside from self inflicted kicks. Thank you

George L. Monahan

PS. In my book there is no greater compliment than to call someone teacher. It comes with all the respect and admiration due to that high calling.

Anonymous said...

What are you refering to as admonition on perfectionism? Where is that located?

I'm sorry I can not find it.