Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Update at 11:40 am

Here is a five minute bar chart showing the e-mini day session. About an hour ago the market bounced very quickly off of support which stood at the midpoint of yesterday's range (green dotted line). I only caught on to what was happening well after the bounce started. Nonetheless, I was (and am still) expecting the market to move up to the top of my range estimate (blue rectangle). So I bought a second unit on the theory that late is better than never.

But as you can see the market did not follow through. I sold my add on the way down at 765.75 when volume started to pick up on the downside in the one minute chart. Afterward the market rallied to a lower top (second last bar on the chart) and then put in a wide range break down bar. This action kicked me out of the second half of my position. By this time it had become obvious that the opening price was at the high end of the day's trading activity thus far, and I never like to be positioned in the wrong end of any range that lasts for more than a couple of hours.

At the moment I think that the market will probably have to drop to the purple support line to find more buyers. There is a Fed announcement at 2:15 pm today and this will probably put a wet blanket on activity until then.


Anonymous said...

I love ya like a brother, this is a heart breaker of a volume is convulsing when it swings higher/lower than back to sleep; is this some sort of sign of a bigger event to come? Any corralations?


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl and Friends,

Carl, Earlier day's high of QQQQ was 29.43. Few minutes back, QQQQ overtook its high (29.43). One more indication that today will remain a bullish day.