Friday, March 27, 2009

Out of the Box

Here is a five minute chart of today's e-mini trading. It looks like the market is falling out of the range box on increasing volume (red arrows). The fact that this breakout occurred immediately after an wide range up bar on high volume (green arrows) is especially bearish. I now think that the high of the day is in place. A 25 point range would put the low of the day near 796 (blue rectangle). If the market is indeed going down then I don't think we shall see it rally even as far as the purple dotted line, the midpoint of this morning's trading range near 816.


Anonymous said...

hi carl
well todays decline is very interesting cycle wise .
also when i look at the 60 min
trin short term lows have tended
to come in when we see a spike up near 10 intraday . weather that holds true or not remains to be seen yet it would call for some time of a turn monday sometime
a .382 time retracement of the 5 wave move up would call for a low
near the close or early monday
and just to add this the count from the mid section i have been following on the dow has completed
points e j a jj all of which were dead on on the hourly chart .
in my opion even though this is speculative it is now about the
lindsay time spans from last years
lower swing highs of may and august .

Anonymous said...

ACTUALLY i am wrong
point jj has not satisfied its time .awe well ill keep working on this

2cents said...

Joe, anyway you can post a chart somewhere such that we can what you are calculation is this is the end of wave4 from Jan06 and wave5 will complete by Apr4 at around OEX 351...I am an OEX option trader..thanks


Anonymous said...

No offense, but you comments are pretty much "anti-Carl" in understandability. While it's easy to follow Carl's reasoning, your comments are like listening to someone speak in tongues :-)