Friday, March 20, 2009

Plan B

Here is a five minute chart of today's day session in the e-minis. My range estimates of lows at 772 have been proven wrong. The market has dropped below the 770 level on increasing, though not heavy, volume. Since I am long one unit from 769.75 I have to play defense now.

My plan B is that the market will hold support that stands at the midpoint of the March 16-17 reaction which went from 771 to 746. The midpoint is roughly 759 (purple dotted line). Volume today is still visibly below yesterday's, so I think today's range won't be any bigger than yesterday's which was 24 points. So my new range estimate (blue rectangle) is 25 points, putting the low for today at 760.

I also want to point out a potential selling climax (red arrows). Sometimes the market reverses right after the climax bar, but more frequently it drops a little below the climax low on less volume before rallying substantially.

How big a rally might we get by the close? I think the most we are likely to see would be a move back to the midpoint of today's range which right now is at 773.

I am still very bullish on this market and expect Monday to be an up day.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

carl i think today will finish LOD but whether we will continue down depend on monday finish and volume